A rapid increase in sea‐level rise is generating vertical accommodation space on modern coral reefs. Yet increases in sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) are reducing the capacity of coral reefs to keep up with sea‐level rise. We use ensemble species distribution models of four coral species (Porites rus, Porites lobata, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera) to gauge potential geographic differences in gross carbonate production. Net carbonate production was estimated by considering erosional rates of ocean acidification, increasing cyclone intensity, local pollution, fishing pressure and the projected burdens of increases in SSTs (under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) through to the year 2100. Our models predict that only 4 ± 0.1% (~60 000 km²) of Indo‐Pacific coral reefs are projected to keep up with sea‐level rise by the year 2100 under RCP 8.5 – most of which will be located near the Equator. However, with drastic reductions in emissions (under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 Wm⁻²), we predict that 15 ± 0.3% (~250 000 km²) (under RCP 4.5 Wm⁻²) and 12 ± 0.7% (~200 000 km²) (under RCP 6.0 Wm⁻²) of Indo‐Pacific coral reefs, have the potential to keep up with sea‐level rise by the year 2100. Yet the burdens of fishing pressure and its cascading effects are projected to be responsible for substantial reef erosion, nearly halving the number of reefs able to keep up with sea‐level rise. If action is taken immediately and emissions are drastically reduced to RCPs 4.5 or 6.0 Wm⁻², and reef management reduces the burdens of local pollution and fishing pressure, then our model predicts that 21–27% (~350 000–470 000 km²) of Indo‐Pacific coral reefs – most of which will be located near the Equator – would have the potential to keep up with sea‐level rise by the year 2100.

中文翻译：

---

减少碳排放和捕捞压力对于赤道珊瑚礁跟上海洋上升都是必要的

海平面上升的迅速增加正在现代珊瑚礁上产生垂直的居住空间。然而，海表温度（SSTs）的上升正在降低珊瑚礁跟上海平面上升的能力。我们用四个珊瑚物种（合奏物种分布模型滨RUS，滨野葛，鹿角风信子和鹿角digitifera），以估算碳酸盐总产量的潜在地域差异。碳酸盐净产量的估算是通过考虑到2100年之前海洋酸化的侵蚀率，旋风强度的增加，局部污染，捕鱼压力以及SST增加的预计负担（在代表浓度途径（RCP）4.5、6.0和8.5下）进行的。我们的模型预测，根据RCP 8.5，到2100年，印度太平洋太平洋珊瑚礁仅能预测4±0.1％（〜60000 km ²）的海平面上升速度，其中大部分将位于赤道附近。但是，随着排放量的大幅减少（在RCP 4.5和6.0 Wm ^-2下），我们预测排放为15±0.3％（〜250000 km ²）（在RCP 4.5 Wm ^-2下））和12±0.7％（〜200 000 km ²）（在RCP 6.0 Wm ^−2下），有可能在2100年跟上海平面上升的趋势。预计其级联效应是造成礁石大量侵蚀的原因，几乎可以使跟上海平面上升的礁石数量减少一半。如果立即采取行动，并将排放量大幅度降低至RCP 4.5或6.0 Wm ^-2，而礁石管理减少了当地污染和捕鱼压力的负担，那么我们的模型将预测为21–27％（〜350 000–470 000 km ²）印度太平洋的珊瑚礁-大多数将位于赤道附近-到2100年将有潜力跟上海平面上升的趋势。