Species distribution models analyse how species use different types of habitats. Their spatial predictions are often used to prioritize areas for conservation. Individuals may, however, prefer settling in habitat types of low quality compared to other available habitats. This ecological trap phenomenon is usually studied in a small number of habitat patches and consequences at the landscape level are largely unknown. It is therefore often unclear whether the spatial pattern of habitat use is aligned with the behavioural decisions made by the individuals during habitat selection or reflects actual variation in the quality of different habitat types. As species distribution models analyse the pattern of occurrence in different habitats, there is a conservation interest in examining what their predictions mean in terms of habitat quality when ecological traps are operating. Previous work in Belgium showed that red‐backed shrikes Lanius collurio are more attracted to newly available clear‐cut habitat in plantation forests than to the traditionally used farmland habitat. We developed models with shrike distribution data and compared their predictions with spatial variation in shrike reproductive performance used as a proxy for habitat quality. Models accurately predicted shrike distribution and identified the preferred clear‐cut patches as the most frequently used habitat, but reproductive performance was lower in clear‐cut areas than in farmland. With human‐induced rapid environmental changes, organisms may indeed be attracted to low‐quality habitats and occupy them at high densities. Consequently, the predictions of statistical models based on occurrence records may not align with variation in significant population parameters for the maintenance of the species. When species expand their range to novel habitats, such models are useful to document the spatial distribution of the organisms, but data on population growth rates are worth collecting before using model predictions to guide the spatial prioritization of conservation actions.

中文翻译：

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生态陷阱和物种分布模型：优先保护重要区域的挑战

物种分布模型分析物种如何使用不同类型的栖息地。他们的空间预测通常用于优先考虑保护区域。然而，与其他可用栖息地相比，个人可能更喜欢在低质量的栖息地类型中定居。这种生态陷阱现象通常在少数栖息地斑块中进行研究，景观层面的后果在很大程度上是未知的。因此，通常不清楚栖息地使用的空间模式是否与个人在栖息地选择期间做出的行为决定一致，还是反映了不同栖息地类型质量的实际变化。由于物种分布模型分析了不同栖息地的发生模式，当生态陷阱运行时，研究他们的预测对栖息地质量的意义是保护利益。比利时之前的工作表明，红背伯劳的 Lanius collurio 更喜欢种植林中新近可用的干净栖息地，而不是传统上使用的农田栖息地。我们开发了包含伯劳分布数据的模型，并将它们的预测与用作栖息地质量代理的伯劳繁殖性能的空间变化进行了比较。模型准确地预测了伯劳分布，并将首选的清晰斑块确定为最常使用的栖息地，但清晰地区的繁殖性能低于农田。随着人为引起的快速环境变化，生物可能确实会被低质量的栖息地所吸引并以高密度占据它们。因此，基于发生记录的统计模型的预测可能与维持物种的重要种群参数的变化不一致。当物种将其范围扩展到新的栖息地时，此类模型可用于记录生物的空间分布，但在使用模型预测来指导保护行动的空间优先排序之前，值得收集有关人口增长率的数据。