The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation,WIREs Climate Change

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The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-04 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.642
Anita Wreford ₁ , Ruth Dittrich ₂ , Thomas D. Pol ₃

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Climate change adaptation investment decisions can be made more efficiently if uncertainty and new information are considered in their economic appraisal. Real options analysis (ROA) is a robust decision‐making tool that allows for the incorporation of both uncertainty and new information. In this opinion article, we argue that ROA is a valuable tool, providing the analysis is designed to reflect the real‐world characteristics of the decision context. We highlight the differences between traditional risk‐based ROA, and scenario‐based ROA, and discuss the relative merits of the approaches from the perspective of their assumptions and use of climate information. We also emphasize the need for increased co‐development of ROA design and applications with end‐users. Given the large climate uncertainties for long‐term adaptation planning, we suggest that an emerging strand of scenario‐based ROA methods offers ways to help identify and conditionally value flexibility without aggregating values into precise expected values across states of the world.

中文翻译：

实物期权分析对适应气候变化的附加价值

如果在经济评估中考虑不确定性和新信息，则可以更有效地做出适应气候变化的投资决策。实物期权分析（ROA）是一种强大的决策工具，可将不确定性和新信息结合在一起。在这篇观点文章中，我们认为ROA是一种有价值的工具，只要该分析旨在反映决策上下文的实际特征即可。我们强调了传统的基于风险的ROA和基于情景的ROA之间的差异，并从其假设和气候信息的使用角度讨论了这些方法的相对优点。我们还强调需要与最终用户共同开发ROA设计和应用程序。鉴于长期适应计划的气候不确定性很大，

更新日期：2020-03-04

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