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Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making?
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-04 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.638 Jan H. Kwakkel 1
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-04 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.638 Jan H. Kwakkel 1
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Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in supporting planning and decision‐making on climate adaptation. In the face of dynamic and deep uncertainty about the future, flexible strategies which can be adapted in response to how the uncertainty is resolving are attractive. Traditional cost‐benefit analysis cannot account for the value created through optionality. ROA sets out to amend this. There are however several profound problems with how ROA tries to do this. It is typically not clear what is the baseline plan, without options, against which value is to be estimated. Different baselines significantly change option value. Even if option value can unequivocally be established for a given scenario, ROA relies on expected values over a set of scenarios. First, this requires assigning weights, or probabilities, to scenarios. Given the long‐time horizon involved in climate adaptation, these probabilities are meaningless. Second, the expected value over a set of scenarios need not obtain in any single scenario and is thus not a meaningful summary of option value.
中文翻译：
实物期权分析是否适合支持气候适应计划和决策的目的？
尽管通常认为实物期权分析（ROA）是评估灵活策略的最佳工具，但ROA的假设仍然存在严重的问题，使其不适合用于支持气候适应的计划和决策。面对关于未来的动态和深刻的不确定性，可以根据不确定性如何解决而进行调整的灵活策略很有吸引力。传统的成本效益分析无法说明通过可选性创造的价值。ROA着手对此进行修改。但是，ROA如何尝试执行此操作存在几个深刻的问题。通常不清楚什么是基线计划，没有选择权，要根据哪个基线来评估价值。不同的基准会显着改变期权价值。即使可以为给定场景明确地建立期权价值，ROA仍依赖于一组场景的期望值。首先，这需要为方案分配权重或概率。考虑到气候适应的长期前景，这些可能性毫无意义。其次，不需要在任何单个场景中获得一组场景的期望值，因此这不是期权价值的有意义的总结。
更新日期：2020-03-04
中文翻译：
实物期权分析是否适合支持气候适应计划和决策的目的？
尽管通常认为实物期权分析（ROA）是评估灵活策略的最佳工具，但ROA的假设仍然存在严重的问题，使其不适合用于支持气候适应的计划和决策。面对关于未来的动态和深刻的不确定性，可以根据不确定性如何解决而进行调整的灵活策略很有吸引力。传统的成本效益分析无法说明通过可选性创造的价值。ROA着手对此进行修改。但是，ROA如何尝试执行此操作存在几个深刻的问题。通常不清楚什么是基线计划，没有选择权，要根据哪个基线来评估价值。不同的基准会显着改变期权价值。即使可以为给定场景明确地建立期权价值，ROA仍依赖于一组场景的期望值。首先，这需要为方案分配权重或概率。考虑到气候适应的长期前景，这些可能性毫无意义。其次，不需要在任何单个场景中获得一组场景的期望值，因此这不是期权价值的有意义的总结。
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