Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics,WIREs Climate Change

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Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-03 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.625
Morgan Bazilian ₁ , Michael Bradshaw ₂ , Johannes Gabriel ₃ , Andreas Goldthau ₄ , Kirsten Westphal ₅

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This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short‐term, protectionist, and self‐interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.

中文翻译：

能源转型的四种情况：驱动因素，后果以及对地缘政治的影响

这篇观点文章提供了有关正在进行的全球能源转型的地缘政治的见解。为此，它大量借鉴了2018年末在柏林举办的研讨会，并随后在《自然》杂志上发表了论文。提出了四个方案。首先，在假设将采取多边应对气候变化的假设下，“绿色大交易”为未来提供了一个积极的故事。其次，“肮脏的民族主义”探讨了选择转向内向并追求短期，保护主义和自私自利的议程的国家的影响。第三，“技术突破”说明了技术的飞跃如何导致大国竞争和独特的区域能源集团。最后，“ Muddling On”调查了反映正常情况的能源转型的结果。通过比较和对比不同的方案，本文重点介绍了不同方案的潜在赢家和输家，以及地缘政治后果。它还概括了对政策，理论和情景思考的含义。

更新日期：2019-11-03

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