Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets,WIREs Climate Change

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › WIREs Clim. Chang. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-17 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.634
Nicholas R. Golledge _{1,

2}

Affiliation

Under future climate change scenarios it is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise. But the rate at which this occurs, and the height and time at which it might stabilize, are uncertain. The largest potential contributors to sea level are the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, but these may take thousands of years to fully adjust to environmental changes. Modeled projections of how these ice masses will evolve in the future are numerous, but vary both in complexity and projection timescale. Typically, there is greater agreement between models in the present century than over the next millennium. This reflects uncertainty in the physical processes that dominate ice‐sheet change and also feedbacks in the ice–atmosphere–ocean system, and how these might lead to nonlinear behavior. Satellite observations help constrain short‐term projections of ice‐sheet change but these records are still too short to capture the full ice‐sheet response. Conversely, geological records can be used to inform long‐term ice‐sheet simulations but are prone to large uncertainties, meaning that they are often unable to adequately confirm or refute the operation of particular processes. Because of these limitations there is a clear need to more accurately reconstruct sea level changes during periods of the past, to improve the spatial and temporal extent of current ice sheet observations, and to robustly attribute observed changes to driving mechanisms. Improved future projections will require models that capture a more extensive suite of physical processes than are presently incorporated, and which better quantify the associated uncertainties.

中文翻译：

冰盖对海平面上升的长期预测

在未来的气候变化情景中，几乎可以肯定的是，全球平均海平面将继续上升。但是，这种情况发生的速度以及可能稳定的高度和时间尚不确定。造成海平面上升的最大因素是格陵兰和南极冰盖，但要完全适应环境变化，可能要花费数千年的时间。关于这些冰团在将来如何演化的模型化预测是多种多样的，但是在复杂性和预测时间尺度上都是变化的。通常，与下一个千年相比，本世纪模型之间的共识更大。这反映了主导冰盖变化的物理过程的不确定性，也反映了冰-大气-海洋系统中的反馈，以及这些反馈如何导致非线性行为。卫星观测有助于限制冰盖变化的短期预测，但这些记录仍然太短，无法捕捉到完整的冰盖响应。相反，地质记录可用于长期冰盖模拟，但存在较大的不确定性，这意味着它们通常无法充分确认或驳斥特定过程的操作。由于这些限制，显然需要更准确地重建过去一段时间内的海平面变化，以改善当前冰盖观测的时空范围，并将观测到的变化稳固地归因于驱动机制。改进的未来预测将需要一种模型，该模型可以捕获比当前合并的更为广泛的物理过程套件，并且可以更好地量化相关的不确定性。

更新日期：2020-01-17

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

阅读更多本刊最新论文