Abstract

We develop an acceptance sampling approach for surveillance of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a harmful forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare sampling strategies computed with two different management objectives. The first objective maximizes the expected area with detected infestations and the second objective minimizes the expected number of undetected infested trees in sites that were not inspected or where inspection did not find an infestation. The choice of the management objective influences the survey strategy: achieving the first objective involves selecting sites with high infestation rates proximal to the infested area, whereas the second objective requires inspecting sites with both high infestation rates and high host densities. Adding uncertainty prescribes inspecting a larger area with lower sampling rates and extending the surveys to farther distances from the infested locations. If a decision maker wants to minimize the worst-case damage from failed detections, the optimal strategy is to survey more sites with high host densities at farther distances, where EAB arrivals could cause significant damage if not detected quickly. Accounting for the uncertainty addresses possible variation in infestation rates and helps develop a more diversified survey strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support survey programmes for new pest incursions.

中文翻译：

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在城市环境中以成本效益的方式监控翡翠bore的验收抽样

摘要

我们开发了一种可接受的抽样方法，用于监视加拿大温尼伯的有害生物有害生物“翡翠bore”（EAB）。我们比较了采用两个不同管理目标计算的抽样策略。第一个目标使未检测到的侵染的预期面积最大化，第二个目标使未检查或未发现侵染的地点的未检测到的受感染树木的预期数量最小化。管理目标的选择会影响调查策略：实现第一个目标涉及选择受侵染区域附近具有高感染率的地点，而第二个目标则需要检查具有高感染率和高宿主密度的地点。增加不确定性将要求以较低的采样率检查更大的区域，并将调查范围扩大到与受感染位置较远的距离。如果决策者希望最大程度地减少失败检测所造成的最坏情况，则最佳策略是在更远的距离上调查更多具有高主机密度的站点，如果不能迅速发现，EAB的到来可能会造成重大破坏。对不确定性的考虑解决了侵染率的可能变化，并有助于制定更加多样化的调查策略。这种方法具有普遍性，可以支持新的有害生物入侵调查计划。最佳策略是在更远的距离调查更多具有高主机密度的站点，如果不能迅速发现，EAB的到来可能会造成重大破坏。对不确定性的考虑解决了侵染率的可能变化，并有助于制定更加多样化的调查策略。这种方法具有普遍性，可以支持新的有害生物入侵调查计划。最佳策略是在更远的距离调查更多具有高主机密度的站点，如果不能迅速发现，EAB的到来可能会造成重大破坏。对不确定性的考虑解决了侵染率的可能变化，并有助于制定更加多样化的调查策略。这种方法具有普遍性，可以支持新的有害生物入侵调查计划。