Three model scenarios of changes in road infrastructure sustainability under permafrost thawing and degradation due to global climate change in nine Russian Arctic regions are considered. Until the current mid-century, economic assessment of the aftermath of climate change in these regions was physicogeographically based on six model climate assessments of cryogenic conditions, reflecting the most negative (scenario RCP8.5) option of the IPCC global climate change forecasts, which best fits the conditions of the Russian Arctic. The data of Russia’s Transport Strategy until 2035, updated by the authors, serve as the basis for predicting road infrastructure development. An inertial (conservative) scenario of road infrastructure development in 2020–2050 shows that capital costs to maintain road infrastructure sustainability and reduce damage risks under permafrost thawing and degradation will average at least ₽14 bln a year and will exceed ₽21 bln and ₽28 bln, respectively, under the moderate and modernization scenarios. The maximum indicators will be relevant for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Magadan oblast, and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The implementation of the modernization scenario will require revision of the existing standards, technologies, and entire economy of the road infrastructure and capital construction favoring the development of innovative standards and construction technologies, as well as the improvement of the proposed methodology and methods of cost estimation for these purposes.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯北极地区气候变化下永久冻土退化对道路基础设施可持续性影响的经济评估

考虑了俄罗斯九个北极地区在全球气候变化导致的永久冻土融化和退化下道路基础设施可持续性变化的三种模型情景。直到本世纪中叶，这些地区气候变化后果的经济评估都是基于低温条件的六个模型气候评估的自然地理评估，反映了 IPCC 全球气候变化预测中最负面的（情景 RCP8.5）选项，其中最适合俄罗斯北极地区的条件。作者更新到 2035 年的俄罗斯交通战略数据可作为预测道路基础设施发展的基础。2020 年至 2050 年道路基础设施发展的惯性（保守）情景表明，在永久冻土融化和退化情况下，维持道路基础设施可持续性和降低破坏风险的资本成本平均每年至少为 140 亿₽，并将超过 210 亿和 28 bln 分别在中等和现代化情景下。最大指标将与萨哈共和国（雅库特）、马加丹州和楚科奇自治区有关。现代化情景的实施将需要修订现有的道路基础设施和基本建设的标准、技术和整体经济性，有利于创新标准和施工技术的发展，以及改进拟议的成本估算方法和方法为了这些目的。