Mountain forest managers face the challenge to anticipate climate change (CC) impacts across large elevational ranges. For management planning, information on site-specific long-term responses to CC as well as the consequences for protection functions is particularly crucial. We used the process-based model ForClim to provide projections of forest development and their protective function as decision support for a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps. Specifically, we investigated the impact of three climate scenarios (present climate, low- and high-impact CC) at five representative sites along an elevational gradient (700–1450 m a.s.l.). Relatively small changes to current forest structure and composition were evident under present climate, but divergent trajectories occurred under CC: while the low-elevation sites (≤ 1000 m) were affected by drought-related mortality, high-elevation sites benefited from the warming. Changes at low-elevation sites were accompanied by shifts in species composition, favouring in particular Tilia (‘low-impact’ CC) and Pinus sylvestris (‘high-impact’ CC). Forest management accelerated the shift towards climate-adapted tree species, thereby reducing detrimental effects of the ‘low-impact’ CC scenario. Under the ‘high-impact’ scenario, however, drastic decreases in protective function occurred for the late twenty-first century at low elevations. A set of exemplary disturbance scenarios (windthrow and bark beetle) demonstrated the importance of forest management and low browsing for the resilience of mountain forests. Overall, our results underline the potential of process-based forest models as decision support tools for forest enterprises, providing local projections of CC impacts across large elevational ranges at the site-specific resolution required by forest managers.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对北阿尔卑斯山前大型林业企业的影响：动态森林建模作为决策支持工具

山地森林管理者面临着在大海拔范围内预测气候变化 (CC) 影响的挑战。对于管理规划，关于特定地点对 CC 的长期响应以及对保护功能的影响的信息尤为重要。我们使用基于过程的模型 ForClim 提供森林发展及其保护功能的预测，作为对北阿尔卑斯山前大型森林企业的决策支持。具体而言，我们在沿海拔梯度（700-1450 m asl）的五个代表性地点调查了三种气候情景（当前气候、低影响和高影响 CC）的影响。在当前气候下，当前森林结构和组成的变化相对较小，但在 CC 下出现了不同的轨迹：低海拔地区（≤ 1000 m）受到干旱相关死亡率的影响，而高海拔地区则受益于变暖。低海拔地点的变化伴随着物种组成的变化，特别有利于椴树（“低影响”CC）和樟子松（“高影响”CC）。森林管理加速了向适应气候的树种的转变，从而减少了“低影响”CC 情景的不利影响。然而，在“高影响”情景下，21 世纪后期低海拔地区的保护功能急剧下降。一组典型的干扰场景（风抛和树皮甲虫）证明了森林管理和低浏览量对山地森林恢复力的重要性。全面的，