Abstract

Climatic changes have a significant impact on the hydrologic behavior of a river especially its discharge. Sustainable management of water resources necessitates an examination of spatiotemporal variation in climatic parameters such as precipitation and temperature to quantify their relationships with the river discharge. The present study develops both parametric and non-parametric models by modifying the tools of ‘R’ statistical software (version 3.2.2) to investigate variations in 11 climatic parameters for a 117-year dataset (1900–2017) in Ganges River basin of India. The novelty of the modified hydroclimatic spatiotemporal trend model is its ability to explore seasonal trends and Sen’s slopes of climatic parameters while avoiding trend-autocorrelation complications using an advanced Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Furthermore, relationships among the Sen’s slopes of each climatic parameter are assessed to investigate the trend interdependencies. Parametric modeling has been performed to develop relationships among precipitation and remaining climatic parameters. Model validation results suggest non-parametric model to quantify relationships between precipitation and river discharge for a long-term data series. The results demonstrate that the forecasted precipitation exhibits a gradually decreasing trend leading to a significantly decreasing trend in river discharge (15–21%) for the next three decades (2030, 2040 and 2050). The model outcomes guide the water managers towards framing sustainable policies for managing water supplies, floods and droughts, hydropower development, barrage operation control, and environmental flows.

中文翻译：

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使用高级时空模型的水文气候河流流量和季节趋势评估模型

摘要

气候变化对河流的水文行为，特别是河流的水文行为具有重大影响。水资源的可持续管理需要检查诸如降水和温度等气候参数的时空变化，以量化它们与河流流量的关系。本研究通过修改“ R”统计软件（版本3.2.2）的工具来开发参数和非参数模型，以研究恒河流域117年数据集（1900-2017）的11个气候参数的变化。印度。改进的水文气候时空趋势模型的新颖之处在于它能够探索季节趋势和气候参数的Sen斜率，同时使用先进的Mann-Kendall检验和Sen斜率估计器避免趋势自相关的复杂性。此外，评估每个气候参数的森氏斜率之间的关系，以研究趋势的相互依赖性。已经进行了参数建模，以建立降水量与其余气候参数之间的关系。模型验证结果建议使用非参数模型来量化长期数据序列中降水与河流流量之间的关系。结果表明，在接下来的三十年（2030年，2040年和2050年），预测的降水量将呈现出逐渐下降的趋势，从而导致河流流量的显着下降趋势（15-21％）。模型结果指导水管理者制定可持续政策，以管理供水，洪水和干旱，水电开发，拦河坝运行控制和环境流量。