Abstract

In many parts of the world, especially in metropolitan areas with dry climates, shortages of freshwater resources have become a significant challenge in water resources management. Rapid population growth and climate change in these areas impose additional burdens on water consumption, especially on surface water resources, which are increasingly becoming scarce. In this study, a change from the Standard Operating Policy (SOP) to the Modified Linear Decision Rule (MLDR) policy is considered as a solution to mitigate the impacts of climate change on dams and reservoir operation. The two policies were compared by using five reservoir system performance indices (reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, sustainability and meeting demands) and three hydropower energy generation indices. This study pertained to the Karaj hydropower dam reservoir in Iran and speculated on 2020–2039. Changing the operation policy from current SOP to the MLDR policy can mitigate the adverse effects brought by climate change. According to the results, the SOP policy works best for reservoir operation if there is enough water (optimistic scenario). In the case of pessimistic scenarios (shortage of water), operating the reservoir system with SOP policy would turn into a crisis in supplying drinking water. On the other hand, the MLDR policy prevents the complete draining of the reservoir. In all water-demand scenarios, the MLDR policy reduces the amount of time (by over 90%) in which the reservoir remains empty, compared to the SOP policy. The final results demonstrate how the MLDR policy can mitigate the undesirable effects of climate change.

中文翻译：

---

通过将运行策略从SOP更改为MLDR，减轻气候变化对多功能水库性能的影响

摘要

在世界许多地区，特别是在气候干燥的大都市地区，淡水资源的短缺已成为水资源管理中的重大挑战。这些地区人口的快速增长和气候变化给水资源消耗特别是地表水资源增加了额外负担，而地表水资源越来越稀缺。在本研究中，从标准运行策略（SOP）到修改线性决策规则（MLDR）策略的更改被认为是减轻气候变化对大坝和水库运行的影响的解决方案。通过使用五个水库系统性能指标（可靠性，弹性，脆弱性，可持续性和满足需求）和三个水力发电指标来比较这两种政策。该研究与伊朗的卡拉伊水电站大坝有关，推测于2020年至2039年。将运营政策从当前的SOP更改为MLDR政策可以减轻气候变化带来的不利影响。根据结果​​，如果水量充足（乐观情况），SOP策略最适合水库运营。在悲观的情况（缺水）的情况下，采用SOP政策运行水库系统将导致供水困难。另一方面，MLDR策略阻止了储层的完全排空。在所有需水情况下，与SOP策略相比，MLDR策略都可以减少水库闲置的时间量（减少90％以上）。最终结果表明，MLDR政策如何减轻气候变化的不良影响。