In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achieving a single environmental goal, albeit at the expense of other goals. This paper assesses potential conflicts and synergies between multiple environmental policy goals based on four future scenarios on Swedish rural land use, assuming zero GHG emissions in 2060. The assessment shows that goal conflicts are apparent, and policy makers need to make trade-offs between goals. The choice of strategy for dealing with these trade-offs yields conflicts or synergies. The assessment shows that a transition to zero GHG emissions provides opportunities for Sweden to shift to carbon free land-use planning. Overall, there are alternative ways with different underlying assumptions to achieve zero GHG emissions, which will feed discussions on new opportunities to overcome multi-scale and multi-sectoral goal conflicts. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are considered more suited to account for the multi-dimensional aspects of goal conflicts. This requires a comprehensive multi-target backcasting approach, which combines the strengths of multicriteria analysis, nexus approaches and backcasting, for supporting a transition to zero GHG emissions.

中文翻译：

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设想瑞典的无碳土地使用期货：环境政策目标之间的冲突与协同作用的情景研究

在减缓气候变化的过程中，尽管以牺牲其他目标为代价，但通常使用反向广播方案来探索实现单个环境目标的选项。本文基于瑞典农村土地利用的四种未来情景，并假设2060年温室气体排放量为零，评估了多个环境政策目标之间的潜在冲突和协同作用。评估表明目标冲突显而易见，决策者需要在目标之间做出权衡。选择处理这些折衷的策略会产生冲突或协同作用。评估显示，向零温室气体排放的过渡为瑞典提供了向无碳土地使用计划转变的机会。总体而言，有多种方法可以根据不同的基本假设实现零温室气体排放，这将为讨论克服多尺度和多部门目标冲突的新机会提供讨论。多目标回播场景被认为更适合解决目标冲突的多维方面。这就需要一种综合的多目标反向估算方法，该方法结合了多准则分析，联系方法和反向估算的优势，以支持向零温室气体排放的过渡。