This study uses the results of 28 CMIP5 global climate projections to link regional climate extremes in the Mediterranean region to the global mean annual surface temperature change. It shows that global warming will further increase the existing difference in intensity of precipitation and hydrological extremes between north and south Mediterranean areas (SMed and NMed, respectively), while the increase/decrease of warm/cold temperature extremes will be only marginally larger in the SMed. The Simple daily precipitation intensity index (SDII) and the total precipitation during very wet days (R95pTOT) are already larger in the NMed than in the SMed; they will increase with global warming at a rate of approximately 0.1 mm/K and 5 mm/K, respectively, in the NMed, with no significant change in the SMed. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is already larger in the SMed than in the NMed and will increase more in the former than in the latter (rates are about 8 days/K and 5 days/K, respectively). Global warming will not affect the difference of maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), which is presently larger in the NMed than in the SMed and will decrease at a similar rate (about 0.5 days/K) in both areas. Changes of temperature extremes (warm nights, TN90p, and cold days, TX10p) will be similar in the north and south Mediterranean, though marginally larger in several areas of the SMed than in the NMed. Their increase will be dramatic and with a 4 K global warming almost all nights will be warm and there will be no cold days.

中文翻译：

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地中海地区极端气候与全球变暖的关系及其南北对比

这项研究使用了28个CMIP5全球气候预测的结果，将地中海地区的区域极端气候与全球年平均地表温度变化联系起来。它表明，全球变暖将进一步增加地中海北部和南部地区（分别为SMed和NMed）之间降水强度和水文极端值之间的现有差异，而在全球范围内，暖/冷温度极端值的增加/减少将仅略有增加。 SMed。NMed​​的简单日降水强度指数（SDII）和非常潮湿日的总降水量（R95pTOT）已经大于SMed；在NMed中，它们将随着全球变暖的增加而分别以大约0.1 mm / K和5 mm / K的速度增加，而SMed中则没有显着变化。SMed中最大连续干旱天数（CDD）已经比NMed大，并且前者的增加量要比后者大得多（比率分别约为8天/ K和5天/ K）。全球变暖不会影响最大连续湿日数（CWD）的差异，目前最大连续湿日数（CWD）在NMed中要大于SMed，并且在两个地区都将以相似的速率下降（约0.5天/ K）。地中海北部和南部的极端温度（暖夜，TN90p和寒冷天，TX10p）的变化将相似，尽管在SMed的几个区域中的变化要比NMed大。它们的增加将是惊人的，全球气温升高4 K时，几乎整个夜晚都会变暖，并且不会有寒冷的日子。