Climate change and forest loss pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of avian species in Southeast (SE) Asia. In this research, we assessed the impact of present and future climate and forest cover change on the ability of SE Asia’s protected areas (PAs) to provide coverage to the suitable habitats of 225 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)-listed threatened avian species. A minimum of 15 geolocation occurrence records were obtained per species. Variables describing present and future (2041–2060) climate scenarios and forest cover change were incorporated using a maximum entropy-based species distribution model (MaxEnt) to model the spatial distribution of suitable habitats. MaxEnt provides robust results with a small number of geolocational occurrences. It was discovered that present PA boundaries have limited overlap (<15%) with the most suitable present-day habitats of IUCN-listed critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable avian species. When future climate projections were considered in isolation, the overlap of the projected suitable habitats with PAs declined under the medium and high-emissions scenarios (A1B and A2) and increased under the optimistic low-emissions scenario (B2). However, when future forest cover was included, the overlap between projected suitable habitats and PAs declined for all future scenarios. The results establish that the PAs of SE Asia provide limited coverage of present-day suitable habitats of the region’s threatened avian species. Further, the projected highly suitable habitats for critically endangered and endangered avian species are projected to have no overlap with the current PAs of any of the countries of SE Asia under different future climate scenarios. These results provide a useful foundation for identifying locations for new PAs to improve the protection of important avian habitats.

气候变化和森林流失严重威胁着东南亚东南亚鸟类的长期生存。在这项研究中，我们评估了当前和未来的气候和森林覆盖率变化对东南亚保护区（PAs）覆盖225个国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）所列濒危鸟类的适当栖息地的能力的影响。种类。每个物种至少获得15个地理定位发生记录。使用基于最大熵的物种分布模型（MaxEnt）来结合描述当前和未来（2041-2060）气候情景和森林覆盖变化的变量，以模拟合适栖息地的空间分布。MaxEnt可以提供可靠的结果，并具有少量的地理位置。已发现，目前的PA边界与IUCN列出的极度濒危，濒临灭绝和脆弱的禽类物种最适合的当今栖息地重叠有限（<15％）。当单独考虑未来的气候预测时，在中等和高排放情景（A1B和A2）下，预计的适宜生境与PA的重叠减少，而在乐观的低排放情景（B2）下则增加。但是，当包括未来的森林覆盖时，在所有未来情况下，预计合适的栖息地和保护区之间的重叠都会减少。结果表明，东南亚的保护区对该地区受威胁鸟类的当前合适栖息地的覆盖范围有限。进一步，预计在不同的未来气候情景下，针对极度濒危和濒临灭绝的鸟类物种的预计高度合适的栖息地不会与东南亚任何国家/地区的现有保护区重叠。这些结果为确定新保护区的位置提供了有用的基础，以改善对重要鸟类栖息地的保护。