Transport policy makers are increasingly perplexed by the pace of change in their sector and by the increasing influence of external actors. This leads to a variety of responses, including “business as usual”, technological optimism, technological fatalism and technological ignorance. To explore this perplexity and its justification, we examine four areas of technological advance relevant to transport: mobility as a service; unmanned aerial vehicles (drones); automated vehicles; and telehealth. In each case, we identify the principal underlying shifts which are driving these technological advances, concluding that there is considerable overlap: three of the advances rely on ubiquitous sensing and on artificial intelligence and all four rely, to some degree, on connectedness. We then explore these three “drivers”, finding that progress is steadier than may be generally thought. We discuss the implications for our set of transport-related technological developments, concluding that policy makers could approach the future with greater confidence than is currently typical. They could also draw on the concepts of anticipatory governance to support their management of emerging technology and, at the same time, of the influence of external actors.

运输政策制定者对其行业的变化步伐以及外部参与者的影响力日益困惑。这导致了各种回应，包括“一切照旧”，技术乐观，技术宿命论和技术无知。为了探索这种困惑及其合理性，我们研究了与运输相关的四个技术进步领域：移动即服务；移动服务。无人机（无人机）；自动驾驶汽车；和远程医疗。在每种情况下，我们都确定了推动这些技术进步的主要根本变化，并得出结论：存在相当大的重叠：其中三项进步依赖于普遍存在的传感技术和人工智能，而所有四项进步在某种程度上都依赖于连通性。然后，我们探索这三个“驱动因素”，发现进展比通常认为的要稳定。我们讨论了对与运输相关的技术发展的影响，并得出结论认为决策者可以比现在更加自信地应对未来。他们还可以借鉴预期治理的概念来支持其对新兴技术的管理，同时支持外部参与者的影响。