Abstract Most building design codes distinguish structural reliability levels in terms of failure consequences, for which they normally define consequence classes based on building type and use. Although readily applicable in everyday practice, that approach may entail adopting inconsistent safety requirements. Such a significant drawback could be minimised by establishing separate reliability levels for key members on the grounds of the potential consequences of their collapse. Further to those concerns, this paper proposes a series of consequence classes determined in keeping with the number of persons at risk in a given collapse scenario and the extent of the respective damage. Consequence class-related models for predicting loss of life are derived from statistical assessments of data on over 150 collapsed buildings. The models developed estimate the number of fatalities and conditional probability of death of building users under given collapse circumstances. In addition to their utility in establishing target reliability values, these models can be applied in risk analysis of specific building structures, especially where the potential consequences of failure are high.

中文翻译：

---

用于预测建筑结构倒塌中的生命损失的后果类和相关模型

摘要 大多数建筑设计规范根据失效后果区分结构可靠性等级，通常根据建筑类型和用途定义后果等级。尽管在日常实践中很容易应用，但这种方法可能需要采用不一致的安全要求。通过基于关键成员崩溃的潜在后果为关键成员建立单独的可靠性级别，可以最大限度地减少这种重大缺陷。除了这些担忧之外，本文还提出了一系列后果等级，这些等级是根据给定的倒塌情景中处于危险中的人数和相应的损害程度而确定的。用于预测生命损失的后果等级相关模型源自对 150 多座倒塌建筑物数据的统计评估。开发的模型估计了建筑物用户在给定倒塌情况下的死亡人数和条件死亡概率。除了用于建立目标可靠性值之外，这些模型还可以应用于特定建筑结构的风险分析，尤其是在故障的潜在后果很高的情况下。