Improved skills and rural-urban location of labor are generally implicit or ignored in food security projections. We analyze alternative labor supply assumptions for four contrasting scenarios. Changing skill levels and urbanization reverses a decrease in food prices and improves instead of worsens within country income inequality. It however slows the decrease in number of people with less than 2500 calories a day available, and increases the environmental impact of agriculture. With urbanization, observed net income benefits of higher food prices for the poor may no longer hold in the future. Explicitly addressing demographic change is thus key in projections guiding policymakers to address the unequal impacts of food security, combat climate change and promote sustainable food production.

粮食安全预测通常隐含或忽略了技能的提高和城乡劳动力的安置。我们针对四种截然不同的情景分析替代性劳动力供给假设。技能水平的变化和城市化的改变扭转了粮食价格的下降，并改善了而不是加剧了国家收入不平等。但是，它减慢了每天可利用的少于2500卡路里的人数的减少，并增加了农业对环境的影响。随着城市化进程的发展，在未来，穷人的食品价格上涨所带来的纯收入收益可能不再存在。因此，明确应对人口变化是指导政策制定者应对粮食安全不平等影响，应对气候变化和促进可持续粮食生产的预测的关键。