Bird species that occupy highly specialised ecological niche are susceptible to environmental and climatic change. These species can easily be moved into extinction by small anthropogenic or natural changes to their habitat. It is paramount to understand and assess the uncertainties of the impacts of climate change on the species to adopt adaptation strategies and provide revised management actions. Based on two emission scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we predicted the potential distribution of Blue Swallows (Hirundo atrocaerulea) habitat suitability under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Eight variables were selected from 21 bioclimatic, elevation and land use/ land cover covariates based on their model percentage contribution in MaxEnt and correlation analysis. Our results demonstrate that maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the most important variables in determining the distribution of potentially suitable habitat for the Blue Swallow. Furthermore, our results suggest that Blue Swallow suitable habitat will decrease with increase in latitude while decreasing with an increase in longitude due to climate change. The predicted fundamental niche was much larger than the realised niche, suggesting that other anthropogenic and ecophysiological parameters may limit occupation of the suitable habitat; thus, the actual distribution extents may continue to decline in the future. We conclude that there is a negative impact of climate change on the distribution of Blue Swallow habitat and any increase in temperature results in the surge of unsuitable areas. Therefore, unless strict protection is awarded to the current suitable habitat, the suitable habitat and population of the Blue Swallow will continue to decline. Our results can be used by Blue Swallow conservationists and decision-makers to draft adaptive countermeasures to cope and mitigate for climate change.

占据高度专业化生态位的鸟类容易受到环境和气候变化的影响。这些物种很容易因其栖息地的小型人为或自然变化而灭绝。了解和评估气候变化对物种的影响的不确定性，以采用适应策略并提供修订的管理措施至关重要。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）设定的两种排放情景代表浓度途径（RCP2.6和RCP8.5），我们预测了蓝燕子（Hirundo atrocaerulea）的潜在分布）使用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型在当前和未来情况下的栖息地适应性。根据模型在MaxEnt和相关分析中的百分比贡献，从21个生物气候，海拔和土地利用/土地覆盖的协变量中选择了8个变量。我们的结果表明，最暖月的最高温度（Bio5）和最暖季的降水（Bio18）是确定蓝燕可能潜在栖息地分布的最重要变量。此外，我们的结果表明，由于气候变化，蓝燕的适宜生境将随着纬度的增加而减少，而随着经度的增加而减少。预测的基本生态位比已实现的生态位大得多，表明其他人为和生态生理参数可能会限制对合适栖息地的占用；因此，未来的实际分布范围可能会继续下降。我们得出的结论是，气候变化对蓝燕栖息地的分布有负面影响，温度的升高会导致不合适区域的激增。因此，除非严格保护当前合适的栖息地，否则蓝燕子的合适栖息地和种群将继续下降。蓝燕子保护主义者和决策者可以使用我们的结果起草适应性对策，以应对和缓解气候变化。我们得出的结论是，气候变化对蓝燕栖息地的分布有负面影响，温度的升高会导致不合适区域的激增。因此，除非严格保护当前合适的栖息地，否则蓝燕子的合适栖息地和种群将继续下降。蓝燕子保护主义者和决策者可以使用我们的结果起草适应性对策，以应对和缓解气候变化。我们得出的结论是，气候变化对蓝燕栖息地的分布具有负面影响，温度的升高会导致不合适区域的激增。因此，除非严格保护当前合适的栖息地，否则蓝燕子的合适栖息地和种群将继续下降。蓝燕子保护主义者和决策者可以使用我们的结果起草适应性对策，以应对和缓解气候变化。