More water yield and less soil erosion are crucial to the sustainable development of the Loess Plateau and Yellow River basin. Different land use policies and climate change scenarios may have great implications on water yield and soil erosion. In this paper, four land development scenarios and two climate change scenarios are designed and applied to the Shaanxi-Gansu Loess Plateau. The InVEST model is applied to quantitatively evaluate the water yield and soil erosion modulus in 2030. It showed: (1) Arable land and grassland is always the dominant land types in the Shaanxi-Gansu Loess Plateau and cover more than 76% of the area. The business-as-usual and ecological protection priority scenarios may lead to increases in the local food security risks, with 1.9% and 1.4% gaps in the total food requirements. (2) Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the annual water yield and annual soil erosion amount increased by more than 63% (2.84*10⁹ m³) and 22% (96.0*10⁶ t), respectively. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the annual water yield and annual soil erosion decreased by more than 48% (2.17*10⁹ m³) and 26% (114.3*10⁶ t), respectively. (3) The influence of climate change on water yield and soil erosion is far greater than that of land use change. The contribution of climate change to the water yield changes is 92.8–99.6%, while the contribution of land use change is 0.4–7.2%. The contribution rate of climate change to soil erosion changes is 84.8–91.1%, while the contribution rate of land use change is 8.9–15.2%. The key ecological services, such as food production, water yield, soil and water conservation, should be carefully weighed and coordinated in the Loess Plateau and areas with limited land surfaces, such as small island development states.

提高水产量和减少水土流失对黄土高原和黄河流域的可持续发展至关重要。不同的土地使用政策和气候变化情景可能对水产量和土壤侵蚀产生重大影响。本文设计了四种土地开发情景和两种气候变化情景，并将其应用于陕甘黄土高原。利用InVEST模型定量评价了2030年的水产量和土壤侵蚀模数。结果表明：（1）耕地和草地一直是陕甘黄土高原的主要土地类型，覆盖面积超过76％。 。一切照旧和生态保护优先方案可能导致当地粮食安全风险增加，粮食总需求缺口分别为1.9％和1.4％。（2）在RCP2.6方案下，⁹  m ³）和22％（96.0 * 10 ⁶  t）。在RCP4.5情景下，年产量和年土壤侵蚀分别减少了48％（2.17 * 10 ⁹  m ³）和26％（114.3 * 10 ^6） t）。（3）气候变化对水产量和土壤侵蚀的影响远大于土地利用变化的影响。气候变化对水产量变化的贡献为92.8–99.6％，而土地利用变化的贡献为0.4–7.2％。气候变化对土壤侵蚀变化的贡献率为84.8–91.1％，而土地利用变化的贡献率为8.9–15.2％。在黄土高原和土地面积有限的地区（例如小岛屿发展国家），应认真权衡并协调关键的生态服务，例如粮食生产，水产量，水土保持。