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West to east shift in range predicted for Himalayan Langur in climate change scenario
Global Ecology and Conservation ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00926
Priyamvada Bagaria , Lalit Kumar Sharma , Bheem Dutt Joshi , Hemant Kumar , Tanoy Mukherjee , Mukesh Thakur , Kailash Chandra

The group of langur species in the Himalayan range, comprising Semnopithecus ajax, Semnopithecus hector and Semnopithecus schistaceus, now proved to be one single species, were earlier thought to be different species. Their taxonomic confusion has led to deficiency in the understanding of their geographic range and their vulnerability to future climate has not been studied. This study attempts to map their distribution in the face of changing climate. The Western Indian Himalayas and Nepal were considered as the study area for this work. An ensemble model approach for Species Distribution Modelling (SDM), for estimating the habitat loss risks of the Himalayan Langur (HL) in the event of climate change was adopted in this study. Patch metrics and corridor analysis were used to understand fragmentation of suitable habitat. The suitable habitat area for HL was predicted to be 24,240 km2 in the present scenario. It is predicted to decline by 64.6% in 2050; 64.1% 2070 (RCP 4.5); and 63.6% in 2050, 20.3% in 2070 (RCP 8.5). A minimum shrinkage by 58% in the mean habitat patch size is predicted. A list of protected areas important for conservation of the species from the habitat connectivity perspective was extracted. The HL was predicted to shift both longitudinally as well as along the latitude, in the landscape, confirming effects of climate change on the species. The HL was also predicted to find refuge under climate change in areas that are not presently protected forests, suggesting management of the refugia would be needed in future.



中文翻译:

气候变化情景中喜马拉雅叶猴预测的范围从西向东转移

喜马拉雅山范围内的叶猴种类,包括Semnopithecus ajax,Semnopithecus hectorSemnopithecus schistaceus,现在被证明是一个单一的物种,以前被认为是不同的物种。它们的分类混乱导致对它们的地理范围的了解不足,并且尚未研究其对未来气候的脆弱性。这项研究试图绘制面对气候变化的分布图。西印度喜马拉雅山和尼泊尔被视为这项工作的研究区域。本研究采用物种分布模型(SDM)的集成模型方法,以估计在气候变化时喜马拉雅叶猴(HL)的栖息地丧失风险。使用补丁度量和走廊分析来了解合适栖息地的碎片化。HL的适宜生境面积预计为24,240 km 2在当前情况下。预计到2050年将下降64.6%;2070年64.1%(RCP 4.5);2050年为63.6%,2070年为20.3%(RCP 8.5)。预计平均栖息地斑块面积将减少58%。从栖息地连通性的角度提取了对物种保护至关重要的保护区清单。预计HL在景观中沿纵向和沿纬度移动,从而确认了气候变化对物种的影响。还预测到,HL还将在目前尚未受保护的森林中的气候变化下找到庇护所,这表明将来需要对避难所进行管理。

更新日期:2020-01-21
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