The increasing rate of land use intensification and the rising evidence of climate change impacts raise concerns about the viability of valued non-timber forest product (NTFP)-providing trees. This calls for the assessment of the current status and future trajectories of their populations. Using population data collected from three land-use types (e.g., grazing lands, riverine areas and natural forest) in western Tigray, we evaluated the vulnerability of the multipurpose baobab tree (Adansonia digitata L.) to human disturbances and climate change. The study was based on the premises that integrating ecological science with modeling tools and local knowledge would enhance the overall effectiveness of conservation strategies and community support. Therefore, based on field-based inventory, ecological niche modeling and a socioeconomic study, we characterized and mapped baobab current and future population distribution and documented local knowledge on the uses and management of the species. The characterization of the population structure showed that baobab stands were denser with larger-sized and taller trees in riverine areas and natural forest compared to grazing lands, suggesting adverse effects of human disturbances on its populations. Moreover, positively skewed size-class distributions with negative slopes in all land-use types indicated a low recruitment of juvenile trees to the adult stage. Climate change simulations using Maximum Entropy Algorithm (Maxent) revealed that future temperature increases would lead to significant reductions (41–100%) in baobab suitable habitats due to range contraction. The intensive harvesting of baobab leaves, branches and bark and lack of conversation practices as indicated by local communities, in combination with the risk of local extinction under future climate warming constitute serious threats for the viability of the species in western Tigray. The results suggest immediate interventions, such as planting baobab at up to 65 m higher in altitude, designing appropriate leaf and bark harvest strategies and protecting seedlings from livestock, will help guarantee the persistence of the species populations.

土地使用集约化程度的提高和气候变化影响的证据不断增加，使人们对提供非木材林产品（NTFP）的珍贵树木的生存能力表示担忧。这要求评估其人口的当前状况和未来轨迹。利用从提格瑞西部的三种土地利用类型（例如，牧场，河流地区和天然林）收集的人口数据，我们评估了多用途猴面包树（猴面包树）的脆弱性L.）对人为干扰和气候变化的影响。该研究基于这样的前提，即将生态科学与建模工具和本地知识相结合将增强保护策略和社区支持的整体有效性。因此，基于实地调查，生态位建模和社会经济研究，我们对猴面包树当前和未来的人口分布进行了特征描述和测绘，并记录了有关该物种使用和管理的当地知识。人口结构的特征表明，与放牧地相比，猴面包树的林分较密集，在河沿地区和天然林中的树木更大，树木更高，表明人为干扰对该种群的不利影响。此外，在所有土地利用类型中，大小类分布呈正偏斜且负斜率，表明幼树到成年阶段的募集率较低。使用最大熵算法（Maxent）进行的气候变化模拟表明，由于范围收缩，未来的温度升高将导致猴面包树适宜生境的显着减少（41–100％）。猴面包树叶子，树枝和树皮的密集收获以及当地社区所缺乏的对话习惯，再加上未来气候变暖导致当地灭绝的风险，对提格瑞西部物种的生存能力构成了严重威胁。结果表明，应立即采取干预措施，例如在海拔最高65 m的地方种植猴面包树，设计适当的叶片和树皮收获策略以及保护幼苗免受牲畜侵害，