We combine energy systems optimization models (ESOM), multi-criteria assessment (MCA) and a stakeholder workshop to evaluate decarbonization risks, trade-offs and opportunities for Ireland. Using an ESOM of Ireland, we develop decarbonisation scenario ensembles with variations across multiple dimensions, including carbon budget and technology availability as informed by a stakeholder workshop. For these scenario ensembles, we quantify investment risk and technology robustness and use these new attributes to conduct an MCA of technology risks, trade-offs and opportunities. Results include an assessment of technology opportunities for two investor archetypes, i.e., risk minimizing and return maximizing, and a sensitivity analysis of the MCA weights using Monte Carlo simulation. This represents a new methodology which demonstrates a synthesis of insights into technology opportunities associated with Ireland’s energy transition and their resilience across risk and economic criteria. By incorporating and displaying results for a diversity of perspectives, this work underlines the importance of transdisciplinary research.

我们将能源系统优化模型（ESOM），多标准评估（MCA）和利益相关方研讨会相结合，以评估爱尔兰的脱碳风险，权衡取舍和机遇。我们使用爱尔兰的ESOM，开发了一个脱碳情景，该情景在多个维度上都有变化，其中包括由利益相关方研讨会告知的碳预算和技术可用性。对于这些情景集合，我们量化投资风险和技术稳健性，并使用这些新属性对技术风险，权衡和机会进行MCA。结果包括评估两种投资者原型的技术机会，即风险最小化和收益最大化，以及使用蒙特卡洛模拟对MCA权重进行敏感性分析。这代表了一种新的方法论，该方法论证了对与爱尔兰的能源转型及其在风险和经济标准之间的适应力相关的技术机会的见解的综合。通过整合和展示各种观点的结果，这项工作强调了跨学科研究的重要性。