This paper provides the results of a combined qualitative and quantitative assessment of key impacts for two low-emission transition pathways for the Dutch livestock sector. These impacts or side-effects can be positive or negative. Both pathways were designed to meet a sector specific methane emission reduction target of 33 % in 2030 (relative to 2005). The qualitative assessment with stakeholders resulted in developing off-model quantifications to better reflect expected changes in system dynamics and development of more realistic transition pathways used for macro-econometric (E3ME) and atmospheric (TM5-FASST) modelling.

We found that each low-emission transition pathway has a unique footprint of positive and negative impacts. This footprint is largely shaped by the combination of existing and new technologies, infrastructure used, and practices deployed. We consider the analysis and results relevant for climate policy and governance processes where there is a need to develop transition pathways that are optimised to meet different sustainable development goals.

本文提供了对荷兰畜牧业的两种低排放过渡途径的主要影响进行定性和定量评估相结合的结果。这些影响或副作用可能是正面的，也可能是负面的。两种途径均旨在实现2030年（相对于2005年）特定行业的甲烷减排目标：33％。与利益相关者的定性评估导致了模型外量化的发展，从而更好地反映了系统动力学的预期变化，并开发了用于宏观计量（E3ME）和大气（TM5-FASST）建模的更现实的过渡路径。

我们发现，每种低排放的过渡途径都有其独特的正面和负面影响。现有和新技术，使用的基础架构和部署的实践的结合在很大程度上决定了这种足迹。我们认为与气候政策和治理流程相关的分析和结果需要开发经过优化的过渡途径，以满足不同的可持续发展目标。