The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster, comprising mainly oil refining, chemical production and power generation. In 2016, the port’s industry accounted for 19% of the Netherlands’ total CO₂ emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the cluster is heavily exposed to future decarbonisation policies, as most of its activities focus on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, our article explores three pathways whereby the port’s industry can maintain its strong position while significantly reducing its CO₂ emissions and related risks by 2050. The pathways differ in terms of the EU’s assumed climate change mitigation ambitions and the key technological choices made by the cluster’s companies. The focus of the paper is on identifying key risks associated with each scenario and ways in which these could be mitigated.

鹿特丹港是重要的工业集群，主要包括炼油，化工生产和发电。2016年，港口行业占荷兰CO ₂排放总量的19％。鹿特丹港务局意识到，该港口群受到未来脱碳政策的严重影响，因为其大部分活动都集中在贸易，处理，转换和使用化石燃料上。基于对港口管理局使用定性和定量方法相结合的研究，本文探讨了三种途径，使港口行业在保持其强大地位的同时显着减少其CO _2排放量到2050年的排放量和相关风险。在欧盟设想的缓解气候变化雄心和集群公司做出的关键技术选择方面，途径各不相同。本文的重点是确定与每种情况相关的关键风险以及可以缓解这些风险的方法。