Road transport remains to be one of Germany's main obstacles to effective greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Even though the climate ambition is clear, disagreement about the preference of alternative low-carbon drive technologies for road transport persist to this day. While uncertainty is a main reason for this disagreement it has been largely ignored in the comparison of the three main options: battery electric vehicles, vehicles with hydrogen-based fuel cell, and vehicles with internal combustion engine based on decarbonized fuels. By combining argument mapping with uncertainty analysis we identify, characterize and compare the uncertainties on Germany's energy transition of road transport. We find that all drive technologies are affected by a similar number and quality of uncertainties. Our results emphasize why any final drive technology preference is still unjustified and why all options should be advanced alongside each other to avoid lock-in decisions.

公路运输仍然是德国有效减少温室气体排放的主要障碍之一。尽管气候雄心很明显，但对于替代性低碳驱动技术在公路运输方面的偏好仍存在分歧。尽管不确定性是造成这种分歧的主要原因，但在比较以下三个主要选项时，它已被很大程度上忽略：电池电动汽车，带有氢基燃料电池的汽车以及带有基于脱碳燃料的内燃机的汽车。通过将参数映射与不确定性分析相结合，我们可以识别，表征和比较德国道路运输能源转型的不确定性。我们发现，所有驱动技术都受到相似数量和质量不确定性的影响。