Major policy proposals often require a distributional impact assessment, focusing on differential financial and other impacts across population segments. Such assessments are rare, however, at the multi-decadal scale addressed in long-term (e.g. to 2050) low carbon transition modelling. There is therefore a risk of socially inequitable outcomes, which in turn presents a socio-political risk for decision-makers driving transitions. This paper uses a literature review and expert interviews to identify mechanisms by which low carbon transitions could differentially impact population sub-groups. As well as impacts of policy costs on bills, this includes factors such as ability to connect to heat networks or install onsite generation or storage. An approach to exploring distributional impacts across a range of long term scenarios from a United Kingdom energy model (ESME), is proposed. This sets out how bill changes and other costs associated with low carbon transition could impact different income quintiles in the UK.

主要的政策建议通常需要进行分布影响评估，重点是针对不同人群的不同财务影响和其他影响。但是，这种评估很少在长期（例如到2050年）低碳转型模型中涉及的多年代尺度上进行。因此，存在社会上不平等的结果的风险，这反过来又给决策者推动转型带来了社会政治风险。本文使用文献综述和专家访谈来确定低碳过渡可能对人群亚组产生不同影响的机制。除了政策成本对账单的影响外，这还包括诸如连接到热网或安装现场发电或存储的能力等因素。提出了一种从英国能源模型（ESME）探索一系列长期情景中的分布影响的方法。这阐明了票据变更以及与低碳转型相关的其他成本如何影响英国的不同收入五分位数。