In Poland, coal has been a key driver of energy security and, despite its declining role, still accounts for most of the country’s power generation mix. Transition potential for the fossil fuel-based power sector can be reflected in a heated debate between a coal-oriented, evolutionary process of slowly reducing emissions; and a more ambitious renewable energy-driven pathway. Both pathways feature barriers; some are evident in standard economic analyses, while others are not. Here, we use a bottom-up energy model to identify the optimal energy mix for the two pathways, and a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macroeconomic model to assess their socioeconomic implications. We then employ fuzzy cognitive maps to explore which agenda appears to be favoured by stakeholders, and identify omitted risk channels associated with both pathways. Finally, based on these insights, we reiterate the modelling analyses and assess the socioeconomic implications of some of the identified risk channels.

在波兰，煤炭一直是能源安全的主要驱动力，尽管作用下降，但仍然占该国发电总量的大部分。以化石燃料为基础的电力部门的过渡潜力可以反映在以煤炭为导向，逐步减少排放的演进过程之间的激烈辩论中。以及更具雄心的可再生能源驱动路径。两种途径都有障碍。有些在标准经济分析中显而易见，而另一些则没有。在这里，我们使用自下而上的能源模型来确定两条路径的最佳能源组合，并使用动态随机的一般均衡宏观经济模型来评估其社会经济影响。然后，我们使用模糊认知图来探索哪些议程似乎受到利益相关者的青睐，并确定与这两种途径相关的被忽略的风险渠道。最后，