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Risk assessment of the low-carbon transition of Austria’s steel and electricity sectors
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions ( IF 5.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2018.12.005
Gabriel Bachner , Brigitte Wolkinger , Jakob Mayer , Andreas Tuerk , Karl W. Steininger

To limit global temperature increase below +2°C, societies need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions radically within the next few decades. Amongst other mitigation measures, this requires transforming process-emission intensive industries towards emission neutrality. One way to this end is the renewables-based electrification of industries. We present results of a recent co-production process which brought together stakeholders from industry, policy, administration and science to co-create climate-neutral transition pathways for the steel and electricity sectors in Austria. The results summarized here are the definition of reliable pathways and the identification of associated risks pertaining to pathway implementation, including a macro-economic quantification. We find that risks to implementation (barriers) are at least as important as risks of implementation (negative consequences). From the quantitative analysis we find that, provided that barriers can be reduced, macroeconomic costs of the transition are only moderate and that stakeholders might overestimate risks, when neglecting economy-wide feedbacks.



中文翻译:

奥地利钢铁和电力行业低碳转型的风险评估

为了将全球温度升高限制在+ 2°C以下,社会需要在未来几十年内从根本上减少温室气体排放。除其他缓解措施外,这还需要将过程排放密集型行业转变为排放中立型行业。实现这一目标的一种方法是基于可再生能源的工业电气化。我们介绍了最近的联合生产过程的结果,该过程聚集了来自行业,政策,行政和科学领域的利益相关者,共同为奥地利的钢铁和电力部门创造了与气候无关的过渡途径。此处总结的结果是可靠途径的定义以及与途径实施相关的相关风险的识别,包括宏观经济量化。我们发现风险,以实现(障碍)是至少作为风险的重要实现(负面影响)。从定量分析中我们发现,如果可以减少壁垒,那么过渡的宏观经济成本只是适度的,而利益相关者在忽略整个经济领域的反馈时可能会高估风险。

更新日期:2018-12-26
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