Particle-reinforced metal matrix composites (PRMMCs) are characterized by inhomogeneity and heterogeneity. The shape as well as volume fraction of the reinforcing particles and the mechanical properties of particles and matrix greatly affect the macro-mechanical properties of the metal matrix composites. Several analytical models were established to study the mesco-mechanical properties of the metal matrix composites based on the numerical simulation method combined with user-defined subroutine VUMAT in finite element codes ABAQUS in this article. Then the Weibull statistics model was adopted to study the effects of particle geometry shape and volume fraction on the probability of particle cracking under different applied strains. After that, an empirical formula for computing the probability of particle cracking was proposed which is a ternary function of the particle aspect ratio, the particle volume fraction and the applied strain based on the analysis of the computed data from different models. Finally, the validity and accuracy of the empirical formula in a certain range were verified through a model with an arbitrary set of particle parameters (particle aspect ratio AR and volume fraction V_f), which can provide a necessary guidance for the development and preparation of particle reinforced metal matrix composites.

颗粒增强金属基复合材料（PRMMC）的特点是不均匀和不均匀。增强颗粒的形状和体积分数以及颗粒和基体的机械性能极大地影响了金属基复合材料的宏观力学性能。基于数值模拟方法，结合用户定义的子程序VUMAT，在有限元代码ABAQUS中，建立了几种分析模型来研究金属基复合材料的力学性能。然后采用威布尔统计模型研究了不同施加应变下颗粒几何形状和体积分数对颗粒破裂概率的影响。之后，基于对不同模型计算数据的分析，提出了计算颗粒开裂概率的经验公式，该公式是颗粒长径比，颗粒体积分数和外加应变的三元函数。最后，通过带有任意粒子参数集（粒子纵横比）的模型，验证了经验公式在一定范围内的有效性和准确性。AR和体积分数V _f），可以为颗粒增强金属基复合材料的开发和制备提供必要的指导。