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Screening model of incremental risk events for reliability analysis of transmission system
International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2020.105995 Leibao Wang , Bo Hu , Kaigui Xie , Tao Niu , Wenyuan Li , Qinglong Liao , Lingyun Wan , Ying Zhang
International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2020.105995 Leibao Wang , Bo Hu , Kaigui Xie , Tao Niu , Wenyuan Li , Qinglong Liao , Lingyun Wan , Ying Zhang
Abstract Screening of severe contingency event is vital in transmission system operation and planning. This study investigates the reliability issue of load loss with static analysis of contingency events of the transmission system. As not all high-risk events provide a more critical impact than its sub-events, the risk index is not always efficient for contingency screening. In this context, this paper proposes a contingency screening model with incremental risk for transmission system. Firstly, the significance of both the risk and the incremental risk of contingency events is analyzed. We show that the use of incremental risk can avoid the “risk masking effect”, which is defined as the situation that high-risk events with weak reference value may mask the events with valuable information about more critical cases. Secondly, the optimization objective of contingency screening is set to maximize the incremental risk of contingency event. The purpose is to directly identify the events that describe a more critical impact than its sub-events and to improve the screening efficiency over that by the risk assessment. Finally, a recursive screening algorithm is designed to identify the set of N − k events with high incremental risk. Case studies on the IEEE-RTS and a provincial grid in China were carried out to show that the events with incremental risk only account for a small proportion of the total high-risk events. Thus, identification of N − k events with more critical impact than sub-events is achieved for system risk analysis in that enumeration of all the high-risk events is not required.
更新日期：2020-09-01
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