Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.

中文翻译：

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菲律宾大米贸易政策改革的国内外影响

面对国内大米价格高企导致通胀超过2018年目标，对贫困消费者的惩罚最为严重，菲律宾政府决定放弃对进口的数量限制，代之以关税。本文使用基于部分均衡框架的全球稻米模型来评估此次改革对进口、生产、消费和价格的可能影响。与过去的类似研究相比，我们解决了三个关键问题：(i) 16 个地区农产品价格的异质性，以应对关税和 2001 年至 2018 年生产力平均增长 1.5% 的历史趋势的综合影响，(ii) ) 进口的原产地差异部分是由于适用于东南亚国家联盟内外国家的不同关税，(iii) 对第三国国内价格的影响。模拟结果表明，改革将在 2019 年增加进口 247 万吨（20.7%）。我们还发现农产品价格和零售价格分别大幅下降 PhP 6.1/kg（30.1%）和 PhP 7.6/kg（17.4 %) 在 2019 年，这解释了大米消费量的增加。我们估计 2019 年总通胀率下降 1.2%，但随着时间的推移会下降。此外，2019 年农产品价格的大幅下跌在短期内在各地区之间的分配相当均匀，但在短期内会恢复到改革前的水平。使用从面板数据调查中获得的某一地区较高的供应价格弹性，我们发现产量下降比全国平均水平更明显。这种差异化的结果证实了使用区域分解模型来设计更有针对性的政策的相关性。我们还显示世界价格略有上涨，这导致南亚和东南亚大米市场的国内价格小幅上涨。虽然这项改革主要是有利于穷人的消费者，但政策制定者需要利用额外的关税收入来帮助水稻种植者提高竞争力和实现水稻生产现代化，或者转向其他作物。