Abstract Payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) are lauded as a market-based solution to curtail deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems. However, PES programs often fail to conserve sites under strong long-term deforestation pressures. Underperformance, in part, is likely due to adverse selection. Spatial adverse selection occurs when landowners are more likely to enroll parcels with low deforestation pressure than parcels with high deforestation pressure. Temporal adverse selection arises when parcels are enrolled for short time periods. In both cases, financial resources are allocated without having a sizeable impact on long-term land use change. Improving program performance to overcome these shortcomings requires understanding attributes of landowners and their parcels across large scales to identify spatial and temporal enrollment patterns that drive adverse selection. In this paper, we examine these patterns in Argentina’s PES program in Chaco forest, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study area covers 252,319 km2. Results from multinomial logistic regression models showed that large parcels of enrolled land and parcels owned by absentee landowners exhibit greater evidence of spatiotemporal adverse selection than smaller parcels or parcels owned by local landowners. Furthermore, parcels managed under land use plans for conservation and restoration are more likely to be associated with adverse selection than parcels managed for financial returns such as harvest of non-timber forest products, silviculture, and silvopasture. However, prior to recommending that PES programs focus on land uses with higher potential earnings, a greater understanding is needed of the degree to which these land uses meet ecological and biodiversity goals of PES programs. We suggest that increased spatial targeting of enrollment, along with enrollment of local landowners and further incentives for land uses that support conservation and restoration, could promote long-term conservation of forest lands.

中文翻译：

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阿根廷生态系统服务项目付费时空注册模式的政策教训

摘要 生态系统服务付费计划 (PES) 被誉为减少森林砍伐和恢复退化生态系统的基于市场的解决方案。然而，在长期强烈的森林砍伐压力下，PES 计划往往无法保护场地。表现不佳的部分原因可能是逆向选择。空间逆向选择发生在土地所有者更可能注册森林砍伐压力低的地块而不是森林砍伐压力高的地块时。当包裹在短时间内登记时，就会出现时间逆向选择。在这两种情况下，财政资源的分配都不会对长期土地利用变化产生相当大的影响。提高计划绩效以克服这些缺点需要大规模了解土地所有者及其地块的属性，以确定驱动逆向选择的空间和时间注册模式。在本文中，我们研究了阿根廷在全球森林砍伐热点查科森林的 PES 计划中的这些模式。我们的研究区域面积为 252,319 平方公里。多项逻辑回归模型的结果表明，与当地土地所有者拥有的较小地块或地块相比，大块地登记土地和缺席土地所有者拥有的地块表现出更多的时空逆向选择证据。此外，根据土地利用计划进行保护和恢复管理的地块比为非木材林产品收获、造林和林牧业等经济回报管理的地块更可能与逆向选择相关。然而，在建议 PES 计划侧重于具有更高潜在收益的土地利用之前，需要更深入地了解这些土地利用在多大程度上满足 PES 计划的生态和生物多样性目标。我们建议增加招生的空间目标，连同当地土地所有者的招生以及支持保护和恢复的土地使用的进一步激励措施，可以促进林地的长期保护。需要更深入地了解这些土地用途在多大程度上满足 PES 计划的生态和生物多样性目标。我们建议增加招生的空间目标，连同当地土地所有者的招生以及支持保护和恢复的土地使用的进一步激励措施，可以促进林地的长期保护。需要更深入地了解这些土地利用在多大程度上满足 PES 计划的生态和生物多样性目标。我们建议增加招生的空间目标，连同当地土地所有者的招生以及支持保护和恢复的土地使用的进一步激励措施，可以促进林地的长期保护。