This research proposes a novel methodology for adaptive learning in electricity markets negotiations, based on the principles of the determinism theory. The determinism theory states that all events are predetermined due to the cause-effect rule. At the same time, it is unmanageable to consider all causes to a certain effect, making it impossible to predict future events. However, in a controlled simulation environment, it is possible to access and analyze all involved variables; thus, making the application of this theory promising in such environments. This research applies the principles of the determinism theory to a new learning methodology, which optimizes players’ actions, considering the predicted behavior of all involved players, with the objective of maximizing market gains. A case-based reasoning approach is used, providing adaptive context-aware decision support. Results show that the proposed approach is able to achieve better market results than all reference market strategies.

中文翻译：

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基于决定论的电力市场谈判中的自适应学习

本研究基于决定论的原理，提出了一种在电力市场谈判中自适应学习的新方法。决定论指出，所有事件都是由于因果规则而预先确定的。同时，考虑到某个结果的所有原因是不可管理的，从而无法预测未来的事件。然而，在受控的模拟环境中，可以访问和分析所有涉及的变量；因此，使该理论在此类环境中的应用前景广阔。本研究将决定论的原理应用到一种新的学习方法中，该方法优化了参与者的行为，同时考虑了所有参与参与者的预测行为，以最大化市场收益为目标。使用基于案例的推理方法，提供自适应上下文感知决策支持。结果表明，与所有参考市场策略相比，所提出的方法能够取得更好的市场结果。