Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till.,Global Change Biology

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Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till.
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-08 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15080
Sarah Cusser _{1,

2} , Christie Bahlai _{1,

3} , Scott M Swinton ₄ , G Philip Robertson _{1,

5} , Nick M Haddad _{1,

2}

Affiliation

Agricultural management recommendations based on short-term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long-term reality. Here, we test the long-term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no-till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N2 O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no-till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29-year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no-till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29-year trends. Only marginal trends for N2 O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no-till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short-term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no-till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.

中文翻译：

长期研究避免了免耕方式在可持续性方面的虚假和误导性趋势。

基于短期研究的农业管理建议可能会产生与长期现实不符的发现。在这里，我们测试了连续免耕农业在产量，土壤水分利用率和N2 O通量方面的长期环境可持续性和盈利能力。使用移动窗口方法，我们调查了在美国中西部上层地区在29年内与常规耕作农业相比，连续免耕的几种属性的发展和稳定性。要检测免耕的持续效果，需要十多年的时间。作物的产量和土壤水分的利用都需要15年或更长时间才能产生与29年趋势一致的模式。在此期间，仅出现N2 O通量的边际趋势。相对获利能力分析表明，在最初实施后，在10到29年之间的86％的时期内，免耕实施的初始费用已经恢复，随着寿命的延长，相对利润增加的可能性也随之增加。重要的是，在超过20％的检查期间内，出现了具有统计意义但具有误导性的短期趋势。结果强调了十年的研究和更长时间的研究对于揭示免耕农业的持续动态和新兴成果的重要性，这从长期来看是有益的。

更新日期：2020-03-16

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