Water source heat pump systems are widely used for cooling and heating due to high efficiency. The energy source can be surface water or underground water. Accurate modeling of water source heat pump systems is the basis for performance prediction, design and control optimization. However, various heat pump models are available to predict the system performance and results obtained can be very different under different models due to the model uncertainty. Without considering these uncertainties, the performance of water source heat pump systems would be overestimated or underestimated and the decision making would be affected. This paper attempts to quantify the model uncertainty of water source heat pump and its impact on the system performance. Thirteen commonly-used models are selected and validated using the manufacture data. By importing these models into the water source heat pump system, the impact of heat pump model uncertainty on the system performance is quantified. It shows that the model uncertainty can result in a deviation of up to 30% in the annual energy consumption. The energy saving potential of water source heat pump systems can vary from -18.43% to 14.78% compared with the chillers & boiler in the hot summer and cold winter area. The priority of water source heat pump systems is also controversial. The difference in the annual average coefficient of performance of the system can be up to 1.22. It demonstrates that the model uncertainty of water source heat pumps affects the system performance significantly and should be taken into account in building energy prediction and design optimization. The models considering the correction of part load ratio are recommended.

水源热泵系统由于效率高而被广泛用于冷却和加热。能源可以是地表水或地下水。水源热泵系统的精确建模是性能预测，设计和控制优化的基础。但是，可以使用各种热泵模型来预测系统性能，并且由于模型不确定性，在不同模型下获得的结果可能会非常不同。如果不考虑这些不确定性，水源热泵系统的性能将被高估或低估，从而影响决策。本文试图量化水源热泵的模型不确定性及其对系统性能的影响。使用制造数据选择并验证了13种常用模型。通过将这些模型导入水源热泵系统中，可以量化热泵模型不确定性对系统性能的影响。结果表明，模型的不确定性可能导致年度能耗的偏差高达30％。与炎热的夏天和寒冷的冬天的冷水机组和锅炉相比，水源热泵系统的节能潜力在-18.43％到14.78％之间。水源热泵系统的优先级也引起争议。该系统的年平均性能系数之差可以达到1.22。结果表明，水源热泵的模型不确定性会显着影响系统性能，应在建筑能耗预测和设计优化中予以考虑。