BACKGROUND Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans, Louisiana as a Category 3 storm in August 2005. Storm surges, levee failures, and the low-lying nature of New Orleans led to widespread flooding, damage to over 70% of occupied housing, and evacuation of 80-90% of city residents. Only 57% of the city's black population has returned. Many residents complain of gentrification following rebuilding efforts. Climate gentrification is a recently described phenomenon whereby the effects of climate change, most notably rising sea levels and more frequent flooding and storm surges, alter housing values in a way that leads to gentrification. OBJECTIVE To examine the climate gentrification following hurricane Katrina by (1) estimating the associations between flooding severity, ground elevation, and gentrification and (2) whether these relationships are modified by neighborhood level pre- and post-storm sociodemographic factors. METHODS Lidar data collected in 2002 were used to determine elevation. Water gauge height of Lake Ponchartrain was used to estimate flood depth. Using census tracts as a proxy for neighborhoods, demographic, housing, and economic data from the 2000 decennial census and the 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates US Census records were used to determine census tracts considered eligible for gentrification (median income < 2000 Orleans Parish median income). A gentrification index was created using tract changes in education level, population above the poverty limit, and median household income. Proportional odds ordinal logistic regression was used with product terms to test for effect measure modification by sociodemographic factors. RESULTS Census tracts eligible for gentrification in 2000 were 80.2% black. Median census tract flood depth was significantly lower in areas eligible to undergo gentrification (0.70 m vs. 1.03 m). Residents of gentrification-eligible tracts in 2000 were significantly more likely to be black, less educated, lower income, unemployed, and rent their home rather than own. In 2015 in these same eligible tracts, areas that underwent gentrification became significantly whiter, more educated, higher income, less unemployed, and more likely to live in a multi-unit dwelling. Gentrification was inversely associated with flood depth and directly associated with ground elevation in eligible tracts. Marginal effect modification was detected by the effect of pre-storm black race on the relationships of flood depth and elevation with gentrification. CONCLUSIONS Gentrification was strongly associated with higher ground elevation in New Orleans. These results provide evidence to support the idea of climate gentrification described in other low-elevation major metropolitan areas like Miami, FL. High elevation, low-income, demographically transitional areas in particular - that is areas that more closely resemble high-income area demographics, may be vulnerable to future climate gentrification.

中文翻译：

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卡特里娜飓风后路易斯安那州奥尔良教区气候高档化的空间分析。

背景 卡特里娜飓风于 2005 年 8 月作为 3 级风暴在路易斯安那州新奥尔良登陆。风暴潮、堤坝溃坝和新奥尔良的低洼性质导致大范围洪水、超过 70% 的被占用房屋受损和疏散80-90%的城市居民。该市只有 57% 的黑人人口返回。许多居民抱怨重建工作后的高档化。气候高档化是最近描述的一种现象，气候变化的影响，尤其是海平面上升以及更频繁的洪水和风暴潮，以导致高档化的方式改变了住房价值。目的 通过 (1) 估计洪水严重程度、地面海拔、和高档化以及（2）这些关系是否受到社区层面的风暴前后社会人口因素的影响。方法 2002 年收集的激光雷达数据用于确定海拔。Ponchartrain 湖的水位高度用于估计洪水深度。使用人口普查区作为 2000 年十年一次人口普查和 2010 年和 2015 年美国社区调查 5 年估计的社区、人口、住房和经济数据的代理 美国人口普查记录用于确定被认为符合高档化条件的人口普查区（收入中位数 < 2000 年奥尔良教区收入中位数）。绅士化指数是根据教育水平、贫困线以上人口和家庭收入中位数的区域变化创建的。比例优势序数逻辑回归与乘积项一起使用，以测试社会人口因素对效果测量的修改。结果 2000 年符合中产阶级化条件的人口普查区有 80.2% 是黑人。在有资格进行高档化的地区，人口普查区洪水深度的中位数显着降低（0.70 m vs. 1.03 m）。2000 年，符合高档化条件的地区的居民更有可能是黑人、受教育程度较低、收入较低、失业，并且租房而不是拥有自己的房子。2015 年，在这些符合条件的地区，经历了高档化的地区变得更加白人、受教育程度更高、收入更高、失业更少，并且更有可能住在多单元住宅中。高档化与洪水深度成反比，并与合格地区的地面海拔直接相关。通过风暴前黑人种族对洪水深度和海拔与高档化关系的影响检测到边际效应修正。结论 绅士化与新奥尔良较高的地面海拔高度相关。这些结果为支持佛罗里达州迈阿密等其他低海拔主要大都市地区描述的气候高档化理念提供了证据。特别是高海拔、低收入、人口过渡地区——即与高收入地区人口统计更接近的地区，可能容易受到未来气候高档化的影响。这些结果为支持佛罗里达州迈阿密等其他低海拔主要大都市地区描述的气候高档化理念提供了证据。特别是高海拔、低收入、人口过渡地区——即与高收入地区人口统计更接近的地区，可能容易受到未来气候高档化的影响。这些结果为支持佛罗里达州迈阿密等其他低海拔主要大都市地区描述的气候高档化理念提供了证据。特别是高海拔、低收入、人口过渡地区——即与高收入地区人口统计更接近的地区，可能容易受到未来气候高档化的影响。