The present study focuses on both long- and short-term malaria transmission in Eritrea and investigates the risk factors. Annual aggregates of information on malaria cases, deaths, diagnostics and control interventions from 2001 to 2008 and monthly reported data from 2009 to 2017 were obtained from the National Malaria Control Programme. We used a generalized linear regression model to examine the associations among total malaria cases, death, insecticide-treated net coverage, indoor residual spraying and climatic parameters. Reduction in malaria mortality is demonstrated by the milestone margins of over 97% by the end of 2017. Malaria incidence likewise declined during the period (from 33 to 5 per 1000 population), representing a reduction of about 86% (R2 = 0.3) slightly less than the decline in mortality. The distribution of insecticide treated nets generally declined between 2001 and 2014 (R2 = 0.16) before increasing from 2015 to 2017, while the number of people protected by indoor residual spraying slightly increased (R2 = 0.27). Higher rainfall was significantly associated with an increased number of malaria cases. The covariates rainfall and temperature are a better pair than IRS and LLIN to predict incidences. On the other hand, IRS and LLIN is a more significant pair to predict mortality cases. While Eritrea has made significant progress towards malaria elimination, this progress should be maintained and further improved. Distribution, coverage and utilization of malaria control and elimination tools should be optimized and sustained to safeguard the gains made. Additionally, consistent annual performance evaluation of malaria indicators would ensure a continuous learning process from gains/threats of epidemics and resurgence in regions already earmarked for elimination.

中文翻译：

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厄立特里亚消除疟疾控制的社会和环境决定因素的回顾性数据分析

本研究侧重于厄立特里亚的长期和短期疟疾传播，并调查了危险因素。从国家疟疾控制计划获得的2001年至2008年的年度疟疾病例，死亡，诊断和控制干预措施信息汇总以及2009年至2017年的月度报告数据。我们使用广义线性回归模型检查了疟疾总数，死亡，杀虫剂处理的净覆盖率，室内残留喷雾和气候参数之间的关联。到2017年底，里程碑死亡率已超过97％，这证明了疟疾死亡率的降低。在此期间，疟疾发病率同样下降了（从每1000人口中的33降至5），略微降低了约86％（R2 = 0.3）低于死亡率的下降。经过杀虫剂处理的蚊帐的分布在2001年至2014年期间普遍下降（R2 = 0.16），然后在2015年至2017年增加，而室内残留喷雾保护的人数略有增加（R2 = 0.27）。降雨增加与疟疾病例增加显着相关。与IRS和LLIN相比，降雨量和温度的协变量对预测发病率要好得多。另一方面，IRS和LLIN是预测死亡病例的更重要的对。厄立特里亚在消除疟疾方面已取得重大进展，但这一进展应保持并进一步改善。应当优化和维持控制和消除疟疾工具的分配，覆盖和利用，以保障所取得的成果。另外，