Abstract Sustainable development is a long-term endeavour involving deep uncertainty and requiring transformative change at multiple scales. To navigate such a grand challenge, new approaches have been developed in various academic fields, such as Policy Analysis and Sustainability Transitions. Two prominent approaches to strategic planning within these two fields are Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM). While DMDU provides analytical concepts and tools to prepare for change (one that happens anyway, whether or not we desire it), TM offers a governance approach to condition change (one that we desire). We argue that the sustainable development agenda could benefit from an explicit cross-fertilisation across the two approaches. We will highlight the commonalities and differences between the two approaches and reflect on potential cross-connections. We argue that DMDU can benefit from the participatory process of TM, and its interventionist approach, which helps to mobilise actors and build networks for sustainability transformations. DMDU can also learn from some of the governance instruments offered by TM, such as visioning, experimentation, and social learning to better prepare for change that can only be dealt with through transformative actions. TM, on the other hand, can be enriched by analytical concepts and tools developed by and widely used in DMDU, such as tipping points and signposts, exploratory scenarios, and Exploratory Modelling, to operationalise transition pathways into actionable policy decisions. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate what a cross-connection between the two approaches might look like.

中文翻译：

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将深度不确定性 (DMDU) 和转型管理 (TM) 下的决策联系起来，以改进可持续发展的战略规划

摘要 可持续发展是一项长期的努力，涉及深度不确定性，需要多尺度的变革。为了应对如此巨大的挑战，各个学术领域都开发了新方法，例如政策分析和可持续性转型。这两个领域中战略规划的两种突出方法是深度不确定性下的决策 (DMDU) 和转型管理 (TM)。虽然 DMDU 提供了分析概念和工具来为变化做好准备（不管我们是否愿意，无论如何都会发生这种变化），而 TM 提供了一种条件变化的治理方法（我们希望发生的变化）。我们认为，可持续发展议程可以受益于两种方法的明确交叉施肥。我们将突出两种方法之间的共性和差异，并反思潜在的交叉连接。我们认为 DMDU 可以从 TM 的参与过程及其干预方法中受益，这有助于动员参与者并建立可持续转型网络。DMDU 还可以从 TM 提供的一些治理工具中学习，例如愿景、实验和社会学习，以便更好地为只能通过转型行动应对的变化做好准备。另一方面，TM 可以通过 DMDU 开发并广泛使用的分析概念和工具来丰富，例如临界点和路标、探索性情景和探索性建模，以将过渡路径操作化为可操作的政策决策。