In this paper we demonstrate that immunization session size distributions are governed by binomial statistics and determined by just two readily available programmatic parameters, the birth cohort of the catchment area and the session frequency. Given this new knowledge, the unavoidable component of an immunization facility’s opened vial wastage rate can be determined algebraically for each vial size and discard time. This has significant positive programmatic implications for immunization session planning, vaccine needs forecasting, vaccine wastage monitoring, and vaccine product specification and choice. Further operational research is required to field test the different applications of the model and to inform the development of tools and guidance.

在本文中，我们证明了免疫阶段的大小分布受二项式统计量的控制，并且仅由两个容易获得的程序参数，集水区的出生队列和阶段频率决定。有了这些新知识，就可以针对每个小瓶尺寸和丢弃时间代数确定免疫设施打开的小瓶浪费率的不可避免的组成部分。这对免疫会议规划，疫苗需求预测，疫苗浪费监测以及疫苗产品规格和选择具有重要的积极的计划意义。需要进行进一步的运筹学以对模型的不同应用进行现场测试，并为工具和指南的开发提供信息。