Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes.,Global Change Biology

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Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes.
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-17 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15073
Eric Bönecke _{1,

2} , Laura Breitsameter ₁ , Nicolas Brüggemann ₃ , Tsu-Wei Chen ₁ , Til Feike ₄ , Henning Kage ₅ , Kurt-Christian Kersebaum ₆ , Hans-Peter Piepho ₇ , Hartmut Stützel ₁

Affiliation

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.

中文翻译：

影响因素的解耦揭示了德国冬小麦单产对气候变化的响应。

随着时间的推移，农作物的增产不仅是遗传和农艺因素的结果，而且还是气候条件和特定地点土壤条件之间复杂相互作用的结果。但是，过去的气候变化对单产趋势的影响仍然不清楚，尤其是在考虑不同土壤条件的情况下。在这项研究中，我们从298个已发表的氮肥施用试验中，确定了单一农业气象因素对1958年至2015年德国冬小麦产量演变的影响。为此，我们使用线性混合效应模型将气候效应与遗传和农艺产量效应分开，并基于这些模型的确定系数来估计气候影响。我们发现小麦生长阶段较早发生，除茎伸长期外，还缩短了发育期。农业气象因素被定义为与冬小麦生长相关的气候协变量。我们的结果表明，农业气候变化对单产发展具有普遍而强烈的影响，特别是由于谷物灌浆期平均温度升高和热应激事件增加。除了温度高于31°C的热应激日，与那些单产潜力较低的地点相比，单产潜力较高的地点的天气不利天气影响较小。我们的数据进一步显示，正如许多西欧国家所发现的那样，潜在的单产水平平均发生在单产潜力相对较低的地点，与整个德国的平均单产数据相比大约早十年（1980年代中期）。有趣的是与高降水事件相关的影响比与温度相关的影响不那么重要，而在营养生长期尤其如此。总体而言，这项研究强调了产量生产率对过去气候条件的敏感性，并考虑了区域差异，并强调有必要在当前和预期的气候变化下找到适应粮食生产的战略。

更新日期：2020-03-10

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