Madagascar is a global biodiversity hotspot of conservation concern. The decline of natural forest habitats due to shifting cultivation has been one of the major land use changes during the last decades. We analyzed satellite images between 1990 and 2018 from northeastern Madagascar to evaluate the contribution of nine variables (e.g., topographic, demographic, forest protection) to explain past forest loss, predict future deforestation probabilities to define important areas that require further conservation attention. Forest cover declined by 21% since 1990 and the once continuous rain forest belt of the region is disrupted twice, in the center and at the southern limit of the study region. Status of forest protection and proximity to the forest edge were identified as most important predictors, but all variables contributed to explaining the observed pattern of deforestation. At least 20% of the 3136 villages in the area were established since 1990 at the expense of previously forested areas. This housing sprawl was mainly driven by accessibility, decreasing landscape connectivity. To conserve the unique biodiversity of the region, the expansion of protected forests and active reforestation measures are urgently needed. Sustainable land use planning and forest management integrating the needs of local land users and conservation priorities should be promoted. We see the highest potential for external stakeholders (e.g., national NGOs) to implement targeted interventions embedded in community-based approaches. Our land cover maps and predictive modeling highlight crucial areas that could act as stepping stone habitats for dispersing or retreating species and therefore important locations to intensify conservation measures.

马达加斯加是全球生物多样性保护热点。在过去的几十年中，由于种植转移而导致的自然森林栖息地的减少一直是主要的土地利用变化之一。我们分析了马达加斯加东北部1990年至2018年之间的卫星图像，以评估九个变量（例如地形，人口，森林保护）的贡献，以解释过去的森林损失，预测未来的森林砍伐概率来定义需要进一步关注的重要区域。自1990年以来，森林覆盖率下降了21％，该地区曾经连续的雨林带在研究区域的中部和南部界限遭到两次破坏。森林保护状况和靠近森林边缘被确定为最重要的预测指标，但是所有变量都有助于解释观察到的森林砍伐模式。自1990年以来，该地区3136个村庄中至少有20％的建立是以牺牲以前的森林面积为代价的。住房扩张主要是由于交通便利，景观连通性下降。为了保护该地区独特的生物多样性，迫切需要扩大保护森林和积极的植树造林措施。应促进可持续的土地利用规划和森林管理，将地方土地使用者的需求和保护重点结合起来。我们认为，外部利益相关者（例如国家非政府组织）实施基于社区的方法中嵌入的针对性干预措施的潜力最大。