This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081–2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.

本研究使用东南亚区域气候缩减/协调的区域气候缩减实验–东南亚（SEACLID / CORDEX-SEA）的输出，检验了21世纪末（2081-2100年）东南亚（SEA）的预计极端降水量。 。对RCP4.5和RCP8.5的发射场景，检查了8个整体成员，它们代表25 km空间分辨率下已归档的CORDEX-SEA模拟的子集。该研究利用了四个极端降雨指标，即年/季节总降雨量（PRCPTOT），连续干旱日（CDD），超强降雨的频率（R50mm）和年/季节最大日降雨量（RX1day）。通常，在RCP8.5下，极端指数的变化比RCP4.5更为明显，覆盖范围更广。除缅甸和泰国北部外，预计东南亚大部分地区的年度PRCPTOT都会下降，在RCP4.5（RCP8.5）情景下幅度最高可达20％（30％）。CDD中注意到了最重要和最强劲的变化，预计在RCP4.5下将增加多达30％，在RCP8.5下将增加多达60％，特别是在海洋大陆（MC）上。在6月至8月（JJA）和9月至11月（SON）期间，PRCPTOT相对MC的预计下降幅度显着且强劲。在RCP8.5下的3月至5月（MAM），预计印度支那的PRCPTOT也会显着且强劲地下降。与年度变化相比，在JJA和SON期间通过MC进行的CDD变化甚至更高，更可靠且更有意义。同时，印度支那也有润湿的趋势。R50mm和RX1day预计会增加，