This paper presents a framework to systematically compare the contributions to uncertainty in hydro-economic simulated outputs from the uncertainty surrounding input parameters employed by the hydrologic and economic models independently. We consider an illustrative case study example. An integrated modeling framework is adopted, involving a surface-water/groundwater nitrate-transport model, and a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model. Environmental uncertainty contributions are determined by optimizing nitrate-loading under ecologically-relevant constraint uncertainty at varying risk stances—the results of which are mapped to economic outputs. Economic uncertainty contributions are quantified through Monte-Carlo sampling of variables associated with social-accounting matrices and substitution and transformation elasticities. Results indicate that, at the study-area scale, the environmental contribution to Gross-Regional Product uncertainty is generally larger compared to that of economic uncertainty. Nevertheless, the reliability of hydro-economic outputs is shown to be highly dependent on environmental and economic sources of uncertainty. On the basis of our case study findings, we recommend that commensurate effort be focused toward enhanced assimilation of observation data in both types of models to reduce their respective uncertainties.

本文提出了一个框架，用于系统地比较水文和经济模型独立采用的输入参数周围的不确定性对水文经济模拟输出不确定性的贡献。我们考虑一个说明性的案例研究示例。采用了综合模型框架，包括地表水/地下水硝酸盐迁移模型和多区域可计算一般均衡模型。在不确定的生态环境下，通过优化与生态相关的不确定性条件下硝酸盐含量，可以确定环境不确定性因素，并将其结果映射到经济产出中。经济不确定性贡献是通过对与社会核算矩阵以及替代弹性和转化弹性相关的变量进行蒙特卡洛抽样来量化的。结果表明，在研究区域范围内，与经济不确定性相比，环境对地区生产总值不确定性的贡献通常更大。但是，水文经济产出的可靠性已高度依赖于不确定性的环境和经济来源。根据我们的案例研究结果，我们建议将相应的精力集中于增强对两种类型的模型中观测数据的同化，以减少它们各自的不确定性。