The link between natural resources and conflict has been extensively analysed by the empirical literature. Yet, there is disagreement on both the existence and the type of relationship connecting resources to conflict. Existing research has focused on demonstrating the impact of resource scarcity or abundance on the risk of conflict, but no effort has explored the reasons behind the persisting disagreement among scholars. This paper seeks to remedy this imbalance by conducting a meta-analysis of the empirical literature that investigates the link between natural resources and conflict. We adopt an econometric approach to analyse > 900 estimates from 41 articles. Our results show that both resource scarcity and abundance are associated with a higher probability of conflict. The direction and magnitude of the relationship depends on the type of resources and whether climate variables are controlled for. Specifically, the impact of the scarcity of agriculturally related resources, such as land and vegetation, seems to be mediated by climate variables. We also find that the way conflicts and resources are operationalized together with methodological choices and model specifications, greatly influence the probability of finding a significant relationship between conflicts and resources.

中文翻译：

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自然资源与冲突：实证文献的元分析

经验文献已广泛分析了自然资源与冲突之间的联系。然而，对于将资源与冲突联系起来的关系的存在和类型存在分歧。现有研究侧重于证明资源稀缺或丰富对冲突风险的影响，但没有努力探讨学者之间持续分歧背后的原因。本文试图通过对调查自然资源与冲突之间联系的实证文献进行元分析来弥补这种不平衡。我们采用计量经济学方法分析来自 41 篇文章的 900 多个估计值。我们的结果表明，资源稀缺性和丰富性都与更高的冲突概率相关。这种关系的方向和大小取决于资源的类型以及气候变量是否受到控制。具体而言，与农业相关的资源（如土地和植被）稀缺的影响似乎是由气候变量介导的。我们还发现，冲突和资源的操作方式以及方法选择和模型规范，极大地影响了在冲突和资源之间找到重要关系的可能性。