As an important measure to abate ship-source air emissions, the establishment of Emission Control Area (ECA) has been adopted not only at international level, but also at national and regional level. However, there exists a research gap of employing econometric models to enrich the ECA policy evaluation research by testing the effectiveness of an ECA policy based on the empirical data. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the ECA policy in shanghai port by adopting regression discontinuity (RD) approach. The RD design is considered as a wonderful substitution for the randomized control trial, which usually serves as a conventional and effective tool to address endogeneity. The causal effect of the ECA policy on the SO₂ concentration reduction can be detected by the RD approach. According to the estimated results, there is a discontinuity around the ECA policy cutoff point, and it is indicated that the SO₂ concentration in Shanghai decreased by at least 0.229 μg/m³ daily on average due to the implementation of the ECA policy. The positive role that the ECA policy plays in reducing SO₂ concentration in Shanghai is well demonstrated. This paper also puts forward an agenda for the future studies in the domain of the ECA policy evaluation.

作为减少船舶气源排放的一项重要措施，不仅在国际层面，而且在国家和地区层面，都建立了排放控制区（ECA）。然而，在利用计量经济学模型通过基于经验数据测试ECA政策的有效性来丰富ECA政策评估研究方面存在研究空白。本文通过采用回归不连续性（RD）方法，重点研究ECA政策在上海港的有效性。RD设计被认为是随机对照试验的理想替代品，该试验通常用作解决内生性的常规有效工具。ECA政策对SO ₂的因果关系浓度降低可以通过RD方法检测。根据估算结果，在ECA政策的临界点附近存在不连续性，这表明由于ECA政策的实施，上海的SO ₂浓度平均每天至少降低0.229μg/ m ³。充分证明了ECA政策在降低上海SO ₂浓度方面的积极作用。本文还针对非洲经委会政策评估领域提出了今后研究的议程。