Abstract A simulation model was used to predict how temperature influences biological control of stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)) by the pupal parasitoid Spalangia cameroni.Temperature, which was either constant or fluctuated due to seasonal variation and/or environmental stochasticity, was modeled as a first order autocorrelation process. The simulations showed that stable flies could tolerate a wider temperature interval than expected from their thermal performance curve (TPC). This was attributed to the fact that immature flies develop in manure, which protects them against low air temperatures. In contrast, the parasitoids were found to have a narrower thermal tolerance range than expected from their TPC. This was attributed to the temperature-dependent functional response of S. cameroni, which was a limiting factor for the parasitoid's development and survival when host densities were low at suboptimal temperatures. The effects of seasonal variation on critical thermal limits were studied by means of thermal performance diagrams (TPDs). Fluctuating temperatures narrowed the thermal tolerance range of both species. At constant temperatures, the simulations showed that the optimal temperature for using S. cameroni in control of stable flies is ∼20°C and that the parasitoid can persist in environments with yearly average temperatures between 18 and 29°C. However, if temperature variation was taken into consideration, it changed both the optimal temperature and the temperature interval at which biological control will be possible. This indicates that climate change causing increasing temperatures compounded with greater fluctuations may have serious consequences for biological control of pests.

中文翻译：

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模拟环境温度对稳定苍蝇（双翅目：Muscidae）与其天敌 Spalangia cameroni（膜翅目：Pteromalidae）之间相互作用的影响以评估气候变化的后果

摘要 使用模拟模型预测温度如何影响蛹寄生蜂 Spalangia cameroni 对稳定苍蝇 (Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)) 的生物控制。温度是恒定的或因季节变化和/或环境随机性而波动的。建模为一阶自相关过程。模拟表明，稳定的苍蝇可以忍受比其热性能曲线 (TPC) 预期的更宽的温度区间。这归因于未成熟的苍蝇在粪便中发育，这可以保护它们免受低气温的影响。相比之下，发现寄生蜂的热耐受范围比其 TPC 预期的要窄。这归因于 S.cameroni 的温度依赖性功能响应，当寄主密度在次优温度下较低时，这是寄生蜂发育和存活的限制因素。通过热性能图 (TPD) 研究了季节性变化对临界热极限的影响。波动的温度缩小了两种物种的耐热范围。在恒定温度下，模拟表明，使用金鸡菊来控制稳定苍蝇的最佳温度为 ~20°C，并且寄生蜂可以在年平均温度在 18 到 29°C 之间的环境中生存。然而，如果考虑到温度变化，它会改变最佳温度和可以进行生物控制的温度间隔。