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Trends in extreme rainfall and hydrogeometeorological disasters in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: a review
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-13 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14307 Jose A Marengo 1 , Lincoln M Alves 2 , Tercio Ambrizzi 3 , Andrea Young 1 , Naurinete J C Barreto 2 , Andrea M Ramos 4
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-13 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14307 Jose A Marengo 1 , Lincoln M Alves 2 , Tercio Ambrizzi 3 , Andrea Young 1 , Naurinete J C Barreto 2 , Andrea M Ramos 4
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Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A review of the most updated literature on rainfall and extremes in the MASP shows a significant increase in the total volume of rainy‐season rainfall during the last seven decades. While there were practically no days with heavy rain (more than 50 mm) in the 1950s, these days have been occurring two to five times a year in the last 10 years. This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of watercourses, leads to inundation, flooding, and landslides. Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanization. There is ample evidence of an increasing risk of rainfall‐related hazards in the MASP. This is particularly so for landslides in vulnerable areas. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. This calls for significant improvement in climate and disaster risk reduction and management efforts in the MASP region.
中文翻译：
圣保罗都会区极端降雨和水文地质灾害的趋势：综述
我们的论文回顾了对圣保罗大都市区 (MASP) 极端降雨事件观测趋势的研究和理解的最新进展。这些问题与引发自然灾害的水文气象灾害有关，如山洪暴发、山体滑坡和干旱，影响人口和当地经济。对 MASP 中有关降雨和极端事件的最新文献的回顾表明，在过去七年中，雨季降雨总量显着增加。虽然在 1950 年代几乎没有大雨（超过 50 毫米）的日子，但在过去的 10 年中，这些日子每年发生两到五次。再加上对风险区域（如斜坡和河岸）的不当占用，会导致洪水、洪水和山体滑坡。极端气候的变化可能部分是由于自然气候变化，但也可能与全球变暖和/或城市化有关。有充分的证据表明 MASP 中降雨相关灾害的风险正在增加。对于脆弱地区的滑坡尤其如此。暴露将继续导致风险增加。这要求在 MASP 地区显着改善气候和灾害风险减少和管理工作。
更新日期：2020-02-13
中文翻译：
圣保罗都会区极端降雨和水文地质灾害的趋势：综述
我们的论文回顾了对圣保罗大都市区 (MASP) 极端降雨事件观测趋势的研究和理解的最新进展。这些问题与引发自然灾害的水文气象灾害有关，如山洪暴发、山体滑坡和干旱，影响人口和当地经济。对 MASP 中有关降雨和极端事件的最新文献的回顾表明，在过去七年中，雨季降雨总量显着增加。虽然在 1950 年代几乎没有大雨（超过 50 毫米）的日子，但在过去的 10 年中，这些日子每年发生两到五次。再加上对风险区域（如斜坡和河岸）的不当占用，会导致洪水、洪水和山体滑坡。极端气候的变化可能部分是由于自然气候变化，但也可能与全球变暖和/或城市化有关。有充分的证据表明 MASP 中降雨相关灾害的风险正在增加。对于脆弱地区的滑坡尤其如此。暴露将继续导致风险增加。这要求在 MASP 地区显着改善气候和灾害风险减少和管理工作。
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