Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution,Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-11 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14308
Elisabeth A Lloyd ₁ , Theodore G Shepherd ₂

Affiliation

In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine‐grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine‐grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic “risk‐based” approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert‐based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail.

中文翻译：

环境灾难、气候变化和归因

在我们讨论极端天气事件造成的环境和生态灾难或灾难时，我们将不同的文献、生物学的和物理学的文献结合起来。我们的目标是将极端环境事件的生物学理解与极端天气事件的物理理解结合起来，形成联合因果关系。这需要在空间和时间上对系统的生态、进化和生物运动部分进行细粒度的描述，同时在空间和时间上对极端天气事件进行细粒度的描述。我们发现极端事件归因的“故事情节”方法和概率“基于风险”的方法都可以用于此类描述。然而，故事情节方法更容易与生态文献中流行的法医证据方法保持一致，这种方法培养了基于专家的经验法则，即启发法和分析原因和机制的详细方法。我们在下面介绍一些此类研究的初步例子，作为未来可以更详细地进行的研究的例子。

更新日期：2020-02-11

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