Several invasive bark beetle species have caused major economic and ecological losses in South America. Accurate predictions of beetle emergence times will make control efforts more efficient and effective. To determine whether bark beetle emergence can be predicted by season, temperature, or precipitation, we analyzed trapping records for three introduced pest species of bark beetles in Uruguay. We used trigonometric functions as seasonal predictors in generalized linear models to account for purely seasonal effects, while testing for effects of temperature and precipitation. Results show that all three beetle species had strong but unique seasonal emergence patterns and responded differently to temperature and precipitation. Cyrtogenius luteus (Blandford) emerged in summer and increased with precipitation but was not affected by temperature. Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) emerged in winter and increased with temperature but was not affected by precipitation. Orthotomicus erosus (Wollaston) had a primary emergence in spring, and a smaller emergence in early summer, but showed no significant relationship with temperature or precipitation. This study shows that the emergence of these bark beetle species in Uruguay is influenced by seasonality more than by temperature and precipitation fluctuations. It also shows how seasonality can be easily incorporated into models to make more accurate predictions about pest population dynamics.

中文翻译：

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温度和降水异常对南美亚热带入侵树皮甲虫季节性出现的影响。

几种入侵性树皮甲虫物种在南美造成了重大的经济和生态损失。甲虫出苗时间的准确预测将使控制工作更加有效。为了确定是否可以通过季节，温度或降水量预测树皮甲虫的出现，我们分析了乌拉圭三种引入的树皮甲虫的诱捕记录。我们使用三角函数作为广义线性模型中的季节预测因子，以说明纯粹的季节影响，同时测试温度和降水的影响。结果表明，这三种甲虫都具有较强但独特的季节性出苗方式，并且对温度和降水的反应不同。黄（Blandford）在夏季出现，并随着降水增加而增加，但不受温度的影响。Hylurgus ligniperda（Fabricius）于冬季出现，并随温度升高而增加，但不受降水影响。骨畸形菌（沃拉斯顿）在春季初生，在初夏出现较少，但与温度或降水没有显着关系。这项研究表明，乌拉圭这些树皮甲虫的出现受季节的影响大于受温度和降水波动的影响。它还显示了如何轻松地将季节性纳入模型中，以便对虫害种群动态做出更准确的预测。