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Multidecadal modulations of key metrics of global climate change
Global and Planetary Change ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103149
Nathaniel C. Johnson , Dillon J. Amaya , Qinghua Ding , Yu Kosaka , Hiroki Tokinaga , Shang-Ping Xie

Abstract Widespread public and scientific interest in the recent global warming hiatus and related multidecadal climate variability stimulated a surge in our understanding of key metrics of global climate change. While seeking explanations for the nearly steady global mean temperature from late 1990s through the early 2010s, the scientific community also grappled with concomitant and seemingly inconsistent changes in other metrics. For example, over that period, Arctic sea ice experienced a rapid decline but Antarctic sea ice expanded slightly, summertime warm extremes continued to rise without evidence of a pause, and the expanding Hadley cell trend maintained its course. In this article, we review recent advances in understanding the multidecadal variability of these metrics of global climate change, focusing on how internal multidecadal variability may reconcile differences between projected and recently observed trends and apparent inconsistencies between recent trends in some metrics. We emphasize that the impacts of global scale, naturally occurring patterns on multidecadal timescales, most notably the Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, tend to be more regionally heterogeneous than those of radiatively forced change, which weakens the relationship between local climate impacts and global mean temperature on multidecadal timescales. We conclude this review with a summary of current challenges and opportunities for progress.

中文翻译:

全球气候变化关键指标的数十年调制

摘要 公众和科学界对最近的全球变暖中断和相关的数十年气候变率的广泛兴趣刺激了我们对全球气候变化关键指标的理解激增。在寻求解释从 1990 年代末到 2010 年代初几乎稳定的全球平均温度的同时,科学界也在努力应对其他指标随之而来且看似不一致的变化。例如,在此期间,北极海冰迅速减少,但南极海冰略有扩大,夏季极端暖气继续上升,没有停顿的迹象,扩大的哈德利细胞趋势保持不变。在本文中,我们回顾了在理解这些全球气候变化指标的数十年变化方面的最新进展,重点关注内部多年变化如何调和预测和最近观察到的趋势之间的差异以及某些指标中最近趋势之间的明显不一致。我们强调,与辐射强迫变化相比,全球尺度、自然发生模式在多年代际时间尺度上的影响,尤其是太平洋和大西洋的多年代际变率,在区域上更具异质性,这削弱了局地气候影响与全球平均温度之间的关系在几十年的时间尺度上。我们总结了当前的挑战和进步机遇。几十年时间尺度上自然发生的模式,尤其是太平洋和大西洋的多年代变率,往往比辐射强迫变化更具区域异质性,这削弱了局地气候影响与全球平均气温在几十年时间尺度上的关系。我们总结了当前的挑战和取得进展的机会。几十年时间尺度上自然发生的模式,尤其是太平洋和大西洋的多年代变率,往往比辐射强迫变化更具区域异质性,这削弱了局地气候影响与全球平均气温在几十年时间尺度上的关系。我们总结了当前的挑战和进步机遇。
更新日期:2020-05-01
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